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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul_philp who wrote (47397)	10/2/2001 3:02:45 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

There is no category for a period of lower or falling demand. Nor is there anyway to know what impact this period will have. Do tornadoes restart? Do bowling alley markets go back to the chasm? It may not be discussed a lot, but as was pointed out with the Cisco case, one can still have tornado-like growth during a period of overall economic slowdown. The tornado may be a bit less furious, but the pattern is there regardless. I would be skeptical of a tornado that actually stopped, versus slowed temporarily, actually restarting since the fact of it stopping suggests that the proposition it offers is no longer compelling and that isn't going to change back when money becomes more available. As for regression on the TALC from bowling alley to chasm, that isn't even a meaningful question -- those are not market size or growth rate categories, but categories about the state of acceptance of the technology. Lack of money isn't going to suddenly make a technology with an accepted foothold in one or more bowling alley markets suddenly become unaccepted again.

To: paul_philp who wrote (47397)	10/2/2001 4:45:51 PM
From: RobertHChaney	Respond to of 54805

Paul, you have done a great job of expanding on a basic point I was trying to make. Thank you. Robert One limiting factor of the Gorilla Game is that the TALC assumes a linear progression through various states and stages (early market, chasm, bowling alley, tornado, mainstreet, post-mainstreet). There is no category for a period of lower or falling demand. Nor is there anyway to know what impact this period will have. Do tornadoes restart? Do bowling alley markets go back to the chasm?