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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (53552)	10/2/2001 3:33:21 PM
From: BWAC	Respond to of 70976

Ian, Good post. I think you found the key statement. However no one seems to care much. The likes of CNBS, daily broker downgrades, terrorist attacks/war thoughts, warnings, expected warnings, talking heads, analysts, etc. have collectively taken everybody's eyes off the ball. Therefore that statement and possibility is missed in all the turmoil created.

To: Ian@SI who wrote (53552)	10/2/2001 10:48:26 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 70976

Hi Ian, I'm not sure this is a sure indication of the American consumer.But here is my dealership's 2001 September vs last September. Last years September had one more day then this September. First off -all departments said a slow down occurred the week after the attack and General Motors MUST be complimented forbeing speedy to the situation( that is contrary to their normal responserate). It may sound corny, but I beleive they responded in an insprational way that rallied the old battle cry of "Heartbeat of America" and quite unlike their stodgy reputation, beat Ford and Chrysler to the marketing punch. A rare moment but none the less "WELL DONE". Our service department slowed and did not recover. Their inventory is labor and when it is not sold it does not get redeemed. Our body shop rocked on to a record - people probably had more accidents thinking about the tradegy that occurred.Parts was just average. Used cars was slow as New vehicle deals became so discounted that the used vehicles became expensive relative to new. The real punch line is that the American consumer's realised a deal when offered and seized the moment.The second to the last weekend was good and the last weekend of the month was dynamic. GM was first to offer interest free on everything and that accelerated the deals. Those who had great credit recognized the priming and jumped on the wagon. Ford and Chrysler were a bit slower and suffered greater declines. Chrysler is a bit of an unfair comparison, because they are in the middle of a new truck introduction and both inventory and rebates are scarce( none of the news guru's deemed it necessary to point out that Chrysler (a predominantly truck manufacturer has just paid huge money to clear out their dealers inventory of the old design trucks). I also am a Chrysler / Dodge Dealer and it is a shame that major model introductions and the lack of inventory don't make the news story when sales declines are reported. The bottom line is, the American consumer is alive and well - but give him/her a deal. Nothin wrong there. The economy will soon learn that it really was just two buildings and an infinitely small impact. The huge story was the terror and useless loss of life and I don't mean to diminish the story or it's horror . It in reality ,pales relative to drunk driving deaths let alone lung cancer or breast/prostrate cancer deaths. The nationalism has risen to prime an economic pump that Bush would never have dreamed possible prior to the WTC attacks. The defense budget he proposed was doubled- the economic priming will be a 100 billion PLUS and rates dropped one whole percent in the last two weeks( my floor plan bill dropped by 14 % last month)That makes me more profitable. The discount rate goes back to 1949 lows and the funds rate goes back to late 62 lows ( another market sell off in the history of our country). The turning point is conjecture - but when it hits - it'll be too late to jump on. I'm talking gap up city and the shorts - who will only be rightfully blamed for being greedy will all scramble for the same door. HEHEHEHE I'm gonna enjoy that. Bottom line - don't listen to the doomsayers - America is alive and well- most of them are working and oh yes by the way - getting paid quite well - and buying if the deal is good. An admirable American trait that General Motors just proved is alive and well! Actually I'm quite proud to be able to congratulate their dynamic market influence - a gesture I quite often criticise them for not doing. It's just in this case the shoe doesn't fit nor does the story of the American Consumer being out of the market. We are a resilient lot and it is hard to keep GOOD PEOPLE DOWN!!! God Bless America!!! Bob