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To: fedhead who wrote (132376)10/2/2001 4:23:25 PM
From: GST  Respond to of 164684
 
Hi Anindo: I don't know that end of the business. I am ready to buy a position back in NBR. Good luck on your investments - software seems to be getting some play out of the comments by Bush -- hard to say if he can deliver on software-specific tax breaks.



To: fedhead who wrote (132376)10/3/2001 1:50:40 AM
From: schrodingers_cat  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 164684
 
Re: Oil refiners

The past couple of years has seen strong growth in US demand for gasoline and diesel, which has been fed by increasing imports of product from foreign refineries. Due to lack of domestic capacity, there seems to be a trend towards more price spikes, which are very profitable for US refiners.

However, I think that the worldwide economic downturn will decrease demand for fuels and hence refining. Profits seem likely to fall, so it is hard to see much upside for their stocks.

9/11 has lead to a big fall in jet fuel demand, and falling natural gas prices have cut demand for fuel oil, which are negatives. If people switch from flying to driving that would increase gasoline demand, which would be a positive, but there is no evidence of this yet.

OTOH the PEs on the stocks are exceptionally low, and if we were to see a strong economic recovery then the outlook for refiners would be bright IMO.

VLO has done many mergers lately, so there is some execution risk there. You might also consider SUN.