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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TRINDY who wrote (55504)	10/2/2001 7:15:31 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

geocities.com SCYR is stock cash yield ratio... it is an indicator which went out of favor based on it's original author using it in absolute terms. I use in now on a RELATIVE basis. I calculate it by taking the sum of the SP500 earnings and dividends (yes, it has been pointed out that there is some overlap there) and divide it by the 13 week coupon interest rate. Through the help of a poster on SI, I got data back to 1944 which I had to "manipulate" ( a kind word meaning screw around with ) and got values that ranged from around .95 for a low to well over 2.0 as a high over that period. The original author thought when the value was over 1.21, it was better to be in equities and under that figure, it was better to be in interest bearing cash equivalents. Over the past 10 years, I have watched it carefully and jumped out of the market 2 years ago when it went well below 1.0. As my website says, it went to nearly 0.6 at the peak and the last turnaround at a bottom 5 or so years ago, it was 1.53. I moved my money from cash to a Legg Mason Value Trust fund during the summer when the SCYR had gone up to 1.45 and the fund promptly lost about 15% over the past several months. Go figure? But I am still hanging in! I have been early in my calls before so it is no concern that I am early now. I hope the above helps!