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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (55085)	10/2/2001 5:07:03 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 57584

you paint a realistic picture my 40% drop figure for highend is nationwide sure, SFran will be worse pockets of WashDC, Chicago, Boston also bad these Fed rate cuts will NOT work we are following down Japan's clear path like or it not "we have healthier banks" is another denial do we really Chase just extended another $300m to LTV, now in for $800m are you ready for Chase to writeoff a $1b bad loan? Xerox has 6x debt when compared to mktcap we will have to observe a long list of bankrupt bignames soon that will severely dampen consumer confidence Ford could go bankrupt any bounce in my view is nothing more than temporary either in the economy or in the stock market you are very realistic with minimum of 3 qtrs for recession no other foreign economy can lift our economy the US lifted all Asia in 1997-98 Y2K had an incredibly dangerous effect on the world economy it put all into synch for the first time in decades in synch going up now in synch going down what sector will be significant? good question I think medicine, esp biotech I think energy R&D, when we wake up to urgent need for independence we must detach from Saudi Arabia and MidEast oil FAST I have not heard one blessed peep about funding electric cars, fuelcells, renewables nothing we are gonna spend spend spend, on war efforts, public and covert watch our bridges, watch our electric grid, watch our water they are all in danger as I said before, the main question I harbor is... will this turn into a long and deep recession? my guess is YES and will this turn into a mild depression? right not, I say 50-50 meanwhile, property prices will gather steam going down June: minus 0.6% July: minus 1.1% August: minus 2.7% my guess Sept: minus 3+% what we see is dire, pure dire sadly, I must conclude that BinLaden is winning as a nation we got hit by $50b in NYCity alone and $20-25b in insurance losses and $1500b in mkt capitalization losses and 500,000 jobs AND WE CANNOT EVEN LOCATE OUR ENEMY / jim

To: Rande Is who wrote (55085)	10/2/2001 5:13:46 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 57584

you paint a realistic picture on real estate my 40% drop figure for highend is nationwide sure, SFran will be worse pockets of WashDC, Chicago, Boston also bad but nationwide, I still see 40-50% downside these Fed rate cuts will NOT work we are following down Japan's clear path, like or it not "we have healthier banks" is another denial do we really? Chase just extended another $300m to LTV, now in for $800m are you ready for Chase to writeoff a $1b bad loan? Xerox has 6x debt when compared to mktcap I expect them to go bellyup in a high profile case we will have to observe a long list of bankrupt bignames soon that will severely dampen consumer confidence Ford could go bankrupt very very easily not to mention 2-3 major airlines any bounce in my view is nothing more than temporary either in the economy or in the stock market the predominant sellers of Sept17th week were institutions retail investors still dont adequately measure the threat S&P at 700, Dow at 5000, Naz at 900 are real possibilities I mean by this winter you are very realistic with minimum of 3 qtrs for recession no other foreign economy can lift our economy the US lifted all Asia in 1997-98 Y2K had an incredibly dangerous effect on the world economy it put all nations into synch for the first time in decades in synch going up now in synch going down what sector will be significant? good question I think medicine, esp biotech I think the niche of security technology, although small in size I think energy R&D, when we wake up to urgent need for independence we must detach from Saudi Arabia and MidEast oil FAST I have not heard one blessed peep about funding electric cars, fuelcells, renewables nothing we are gonna spend spend spend, on war efforts, public and covert but how much for weaning off oil dependence? as I said before, the main question I harbor is... will this turn into a long and deep recession? my guess is YES and will this turn into a mild depression? right not, I say 50-50, which would be my first at tender age 49 meanwhile, property prices will gather steam going down June: minus 0.6% July: minus 1.1% August: minus 2.7% my guess Sept: minus 3+% what we see is dire, pure dire sadly, I must conclude that BinLaden is winning as a nation we got hit by $50b in NYCity alone and $20-25b in insurance losses collectively and $1500b in mkt capitalization losses and 500,000 jobs AND WE CANNOT EVEN LOCATE OUR ENEMY watch our bridges, watch our electric grid, watch our water they are all in danger any cops guarding? NO / jim

To: Rande Is who wrote (55085)	10/2/2001 5:13:46 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 57584

you paint a realistic picture on real estate my 40% drop figure for highend is nationwide sure, SFran will be worse pockets of WashDC, Chicago, Boston also bad but nationwide, I still see 40-50% downside these Fed rate cuts will NOT work we are following down Japan's clear path, like or it not "we have healthier banks" is another denial do we really? Chase just extended another $300m to LTV, now in for $800m are you ready for Chase to writeoff a $1b bad loan? Xerox has 6x debt when compared to mktcap I expect them to go bellyup in a high profile case we will have to observe a long list of bankrupt bignames soon that will severely dampen consumer confidence Ford could go bankrupt very very easily not to mention 2-3 major airlines any bounce in my view is nothing more than temporary either in the economy or in the stock market the predominant sellers of Sept17th week were institutions retail investors still dont adequately measure the threat S&P at 700, Dow at 5000, Naz at 900 are real possibilities I mean by this winter you are very realistic with minimum of 3 qtrs for recession no other foreign economy can lift our economy the US lifted all Asia in 1997-98 Y2K had an incredibly dangerous effect on the world economy it put all nations into synch for the first time in decades in synch going up now in synch going down what sector will be significant? good question I think medicine, esp biotech I think the niche of security technology, although small in size I think energy R&D, when we wake up to urgent need for independence we must detach from Saudi Arabia and MidEast oil FAST I have not heard one blessed peep about funding electric cars, fuelcells, renewables nothing we are gonna spend spend spend, on war efforts, public and covert but how much for weaning off oil dependence? as I said before, the main question I harbor is... will this turn into a long and deep recession? my guess is YES and will this turn into a mild depression? right not, I say 50-50, which would be my first at tender age 49 meanwhile, property prices will gather steam going down June: minus 0.6% July: minus 1.1% August: minus 2.7% my guess Sept: minus 3+% what we see is dire, pure dire sadly, I must conclude that BinLaden is winning as a nation we got hit by $50b in NYCity alone and $20-25b in insurance losses collectively and $1500b in mkt capitalization losses and 500,000 jobs AND WE CANNOT EVEN LOCATE OUR ENEMY watch our bridges, watch our electric grid, watch our water they are all in danger any cops guarding? NO / jim

To: Rande Is who wrote (55085)	10/2/2001 5:21:04 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Respond to of 57584

you paint a realistic picture on real estate my 40% drop figure for highend is nationwide sure, SFran will be worse pockets of WashDC, Chicago, Boston also bad but nationwide, I still see 40-50% downside for highend these Fed rate cuts will NOT work we are following down Japan's clear path, like or it not "we have healthier banks" is another denial do we really? Chase just extended another $300m to LTV, now in for $800m are you ready for Chase to writeoff a $1b bad loan? Xerox has 6x debt when compared to mktcap I expect them to go bellyup in a high profile case several big banks have huge "partnership" exposure on bad loans we will have to observe a long list of bankrupt bignames soon that will severely dampen consumer confidence Ford could go bankrupt very very easily not to mention 2-3 major airlines any bounce in my view is nothing more than temporary either in the economy or in the stock market the predominant sellers of Sept17th week were institutions retail investors still dont adequately measure the threat S&P at 700, Dow at 5000, Naz at 900 are real possibilities I mean by this winter you are very realistic with minimum of 3 qtrs for recession no other foreign economy can lift our economy the US lifted all Asia in 1997-98 Y2K had an incredibly dangerous effect on the world economy it put all nations into synch for the first time in decades in synch going up now in synch going down what sector will be significant? good question I think pharamceuticals and medicine, esp biotech I think the niche of security technology, although small in size forget about encryption software, that will become sequestered under national security I think energy R&D, when we wake up to urgent need for independence we must detach from Saudi Arabian and MidEast oil FAST I have not heard one blessed peep about funding electric cars, fuelcells, renewables nothing we are gonna spend spend spend, on war efforts, public and covert but how much for weaning off oil dependence? we had a wonderful window of opportunity from 1975-2000 to develop alternatives we have plenty in laboratories to show for it, but nothing much on our streets as I said before, the main question I harbor is... WILL THIS TURN INTO A LONG AND DEEP RECESSION ? my guess is YES WILL THIS TURN INTO A MILD DEPRESSION ? right now, I say 50-50, which would be my first at tender age 49 meanwhile, property prices will gather steam going down June: minus 0.6% July: minus 1.1% August: minus 2.7% my guess Sept: minus 3+% (for what moves at all) it wont be from people finding no value in them it will be from the absence of buyers willing to commit in uncertain times and perhaps as you say a mad scramble to lower cost of living centers of the country what we see is dire, pure dire sadly, I must conclude that BinLaden is winning as a nation we got hit by $50b in NYCity alone and $20-25b in insurance losses collectively and $1500b in mkt capitalization losses and 500,000 jobs we are united, and at times talk tough but we are pounding our chests atop 600 feet of rubble and 5000 compacted corpses not to mention a teetering economy with large federal deficits soon AND WE CANNOT EVEN LOCATE OUR ENEMY watch our bridges, watch our electric grid, watch our water supplies, watch our chemical factories, watch our oil refineries they are all in danger any cops guarding? NO our vulnerability is 100x what we think it is / jim