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Gold/Mining/Energy : Nuvo Research Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: john.d who wrote (7761)	10/2/2001 10:49:14 PM
From: Montana Wildhack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14101

Hi John, Its my opinion that Pennsaid will do quite well in europe. I believe the COX2 problems have been made very public and that will have a noticable effect. The topical component of the UK is around 75 million sterling of the 260 million market. I believe as Pennsaid matures it will capture 1/3 of this and will steal from the oral NSAID's. (Pennsaid is very powerful compared to Bengay). I've been using 10% of the market since the COX2's and their problems hit the world's biggest newspapers and CNBC. Instead of the public thinking they're the panacea - they're viewed as dangerous and misrepresented. Secondly the pricing strategy is excellent. Servicable market 6 countries - 1.5 billion (all Cdn) Retail market - 150 million DII 'royalty' - 50 million (33% - UK higher/4 EU lower) DMX gross margin - 35 million (see note below) DMX expenses - 15 million DMX net profit - 20 million (loss c/fwd 3 yrs this rate) DMX eps - .40 Notes - Royalties in the UK I believe are above 40%. The 33% is the blend including a small high fraction for the carib. Gross margin is based on 10% direct manufacturing cost at retail level which I expect could be lower at higher volumes. This in the UK equates to 16 lbs sterling times 2.15 times 10% or roughly $3.44 a "bottle" Cdn. The loss carried forward is on the books and future profits will be netted against it until it is used up before DMX starts paying taxes. After that I would expect a 10% plus growth rate until the patent expires in 2006 or with whatever extensions they get. Bottom line somewhere in the $8 range 18 months from now based on this and nothing else. There were numerous companies they negotiated with in europe. In this doomsday scenario they would probably come back to the table and make a smaller deal for what is roughly twice the size of the UK market. ... Governments didn't feel compelled to get their responses back by the time Britain said they had to and DMX only got $600 million US worth of more market in the timeframe stated and said they would find these guys under their desks (or where ever they hang out) themselves to get these guys to deal with it (run away! run away!). Go get em Rebecca. Drag them over here by their ears. "Because agreement on each aspect of the marketing authorization must be obtained from all member states, we believe that we will best be able to achieve this consensus by dealing directly with each of the members." Good. Wolf