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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: energyplay who wrote (8980)10/3/2001 3:14:58 AM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23153
 
Luxury Slump ?

*****************************

The Luxury Slump
By Rob Walker

Posted Tuesday, Oct. 2, 2001, at 10:00 a.m. PT

"Enjoy life," the president urged the other day, as he encouraged
Americans not to fear traveling (he made specific mention of
Disney World). Message: Spend money. I was interested in this
because on the evening I heard the sound bite on CNN Headline
News, I had just wrapped up a brief period filled with activities that
are widely regarded as good for life-enjoyment, and that
consequently involve ridiculous amounts of money.

I should mention right
away, though, that I
wasn't actually
spending my own
money; I was basically
on a life-enjoyment
assignment for another
magazine that included
visiting a resort spa. So
while I won't get into
specifics about the
experience or the place,
you can safely assume
that this spa is in the
United States. And you
can assume that its
mission is to pamper
guests elaborately with
rich food, good wine, a
posh golf course,
luxurious facial and
massage treatments,
and a highly opulent and
exclusive setting. Thus,
for reasons that had
nothing to do with my actual assignment, it was interesting to be in
a place where "enjoy life" is the one and only guiding idea.

Whenever I could, I informally canvassed the employees about the
mood of recent weeks. On Sept. 11, the place practically emptied,
with hundreds of guests canceling everything and driving away
immediately. The next few days bought more cancellations—many
more—including crucial corporate bookings. One man estimated
that capacity has climbed back to around 35 percent, but that's
about half what it would normally be this time of year.

Not surprising. On Friday the Wall Street Journal ran a front-page
story on the drastic effects the attacks have had on the hotel
business generally, and especially on luxury hotels. As that piece
noted, there are a lot more luxury hotels now than there were just
10 or 15 years ago, and many more high-end projects were
recently in the works: The number of "upper upscale" hotels has
increased by 36 percent over the past decade, according to Smith
Travel Research. There were eight Ritz-Carltons in 1989, and
there are 41 today. Now, instead of aggressive plans to continue
this trend, there is talk of massive layoffs and perhaps even tax
breaks or similar help from the government.

Fear is one of the things keeping potential hotel, resort, and theme
park customers from enjoying life. Another, as the Journal put it,
is that hoteliers are "unsure how to market themselves when
emotions are running high. Some find it unseemly to promote
resorts with golf and spa packages while thousands of Americans
grieve for lost loved ones." (At the place I was visiting, one
employee told me the resort did a phone blitz to guests who had
made reservations convincing them that the trip is just what they
needed; another said the marketing department is focused on
getting nearby business groups that have canceled off-sites in
faraway locales to reschedule closer to home.)

The other reason that bookings at such places are off, of course, is
that it feels fairly unseemly to "enjoy" such packages while
thousands grieve. The assignment that brought me to this particular
resort pre-dated Sept. 11, but that really doesn't matter.

Often in the past, when looking at, for instance, old American
propaganda posters urging citizens to sacrifice during World War
II—"waste helps the Nazis," that sort of thing—I've wondered how
such sentiments would play now. How willing are we to sacrifice?
What I never considered is that an opposite scenario could occur:
that the sacrifice we'd be asked to make is to get out there and
enjoy life even if we don't want to, whether that's because a trip to
Disney World seems scary, or because it just feels wrong. I can
imagine a new round of agit-prop posters showing Americans
getting massages or golfing—"self-denial helps the terrorists,"
maybe.

Whether that sentiment is true or not, what's maybe even more
surprising is how hard it seems to follow through with it. That's
especially odd because one of the central traits of the modern
consumer would seem to be an ability to enjoy one's own life as
much as possible without being paralyzed by visions of other
people's misery. After all, thousands of people are pretty much
always grieving or suffering. What's different is how acutely
aware of this we all happen to be at the moment.

Anyway, despite that promotional blurb from the president himself,
Disney saw one analyst cut his earnings estimate for the company
by almost 30 percent. This is also no surprise. I understand why the
president wants us to enjoy life, but I also understand why some
people are a bit reluctant to do so. I have to admit that while I had
moments of uncomfortable guilt on my little vacation, I also had
many moments of unencumbered enjoyment. When you're being
pampered, life seems fine. Inevitably we'll not only take the
president's advice but also re-acquire the taste for luxury that made
the "upper upscale" segment boom. That is the good news, I
suppose.



To: energyplay who wrote (8980)10/3/2001 6:54:58 AM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 23153
 
Fed Myths : The silliness that always accompanies Fed meeting never ceases to amaze, so let's get right to the task of dispelling the myths. Myth 1: The Fed is running out of ammunition. This myth is propagated by pessimists who want you to believe that the Fed can't do much more for the economy now that the funds rate is down to 2.50%. But by our tally, that leaves 250 bp more of rate cuts in the arsenal, which can make a significant difference to business borrowers and households with mortgages. Beyond that, the Fed can just pump reserves into the system even with rates at zero (the Bank of Japan is doing that now). We probably won't get to that point, but it's important to understand that the Fed still has plenty of ammunition. Myth 2: the Fed needs to stop cutting rates because it risks undermining confidence and hurts those who depend on deposit rates. This is probably the silliest of the myths. There are still those who believe that the Fed can make everything better by pretending everything is better. Psychology has a role in any economy, but the idea that the economy is nothing but a con game is false. If the economy is hurting, the Fed does not help matters by leaving rates high and telling us that everything is rosy (they kept rates high in the early 1930s, and that didn't work so well). Also, though depositors can be hurt by lower rates, we know for a fact that lower rates, on the whole, stimulate growth. Myth 3: The 50 bp rate cut must mean that the economy is worse than we feared. OK, maybe this is the silliest of the bunch. Let's make one point clear: the Fed knows just as much about the economy right now as the rest of us, which is not much. After the Sep 11 attacks, the economic outlook is more clouded than ever and only the passage of time will clarify the outlook. The idea that the Fed has more information that confirms a bleaker outlook presumes that such information exists. Even if the Fed already knew Friday's employment report (which it doesn't), that would hardly matter. Who really believes that a report detailing the economy in the week of Sep 14 tells us anything about the future? The Fed cut rates aggressively today because the country just suffered an unprecedented attack at a time of economic vulnerability - to quibble about 25 bp in this environment would have been irresponsible. So here are the real takeaways today: 1) the Fed cut 50 bp because it was the right thing to do, 2) the Fed, like the rest of us, doesn't know what is coming next, 3) Fed rate cuts are most definitely good for the economy, and 4) the Fed has plenty of ammunition left to lift the economy should it become necessary.

- Greg Jones, Briefing.com



To: energyplay who wrote (8980)10/3/2001 10:42:14 AM
From: chowder  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 23153
 
Energyplay, I was considering a Treasury fund. You seem to favor long term bonds as opposed to short term, why?

Thanks in advance for your answer.

dabum