To: Trading Machine who wrote (10489 ) 10/4/2001 3:52:25 AM From: Berney Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 11051 TM, Is that Bear fur that I smell burning? The shorts sure got scorched today! You could just see it happen as Bush was talking this morning and noted that there was an agreement in principal for the second phase of the fed pump. Of course, the great news that Crisco was on target to meet its goal of 2 cents for the quarter was just icing on the cake. I've never liked icing as it just always seemed like a lot of calories without much substance. TA is always so easy in hindsight. Clearly, NDX 1220 was indeed a key point. On the 60 min, it was a Dubya breakout point. As is often the case with a Dubya, the first attempt failed, but that a second move was a rocket. I have the extent projection based on the Dubya breakout at 1370. It is also interesting that OEX, SnP and DJIA (barely) finished above their 20 ema's. NDX and COMPX tried but failed. However, I've got to believe that, if CNBC had not broadcast the India airliner rumor at about 3:52, they all could have finished above this level. I sure wish I could post charts. My lines are all based on the weekly OEX and I encourage the dudes to draw them. The main OEX downtrend channel has the lower line touching the high of 3/24/00 and the low of 9/21/01 (actually there was a slight overshoot of a few pixels). The top line of the primary channel is the top of 9/8/00 (the prior week was the absolute high) and the high of 1/26/01. There was a breakout of this channel the week of 5/04/01 and the top line was use as support until breaking the week of 9/7/01 and acted as resistance on 9/10/01. Sure wish I had been paying attention! Two important points. First, we tried to break above this line today. If we do break above it, the projection is to the next parallel trend line with its current data point and the 20 week ema at ~590. Sadly, my ton of GEe did not participate in today's rally. As to the Peter (lynch) Principal, one needs to understand that he is the mouthpiece for Fidelity. Last year it was noted that Fidelity had over a 30 day supply in over over 700 stocks. That is, if the average volume all went to Fidelity, it would take them over 30 days to unwind their positions on over 700 stocks. Of course, we know what would happen to the price on day 2. I have always been entertained by the use of the "if you had missed the top 40 days, weeks," months, your performance would have been thus. I have always noted that they don't tell you what would have happened if you missed the worse 40. Just a View from the Swamp TB