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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ggamer who wrote (47439)	10/3/2001 12:40:06 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Respond to of 54805

One imagines that Moore would be unlikely to make the same statements about Gorillas always been undervalued today as he once did so I think you are right that the perspective of the book did not have the "benefit" of the events of the last few years up and down. Rather than castigating him for not imagining this possibility, my own tendency is simply to put the observations in context, i.e., "in normal times the market ..." and to recognize that not all times are normal. Hence the need to keep learning...

To: ggamer who wrote (47439)	10/3/2001 1:20:31 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

ggamer, It seems to me that GM missed one big suggestion in his book and that is to inform his readers of times when the market will be going up irrationally (ie. QCOM up 156 points in one day) and how important it is for an investor to cash his/her gains. I don't find GM at fault for not mentioning that. The book wasn't intended to be an end-all to investing. More important, in the context of CAP and GAP, a 156-point rise in a stock doesn't necessarily translate to irrational behavior by those buying the stock. It's our responsibility as individual investors, not Moore, to determine in our mind what constitutes rationality and irrationality. The problem is that he wrote his book prior to 65% of Americans owning stocks, tech stocks behaving irrationally, most people were not online, and online investing/trading did not exist. I don't believe that's true. To whatever extent it was true for the original manual, it was less so for the revised edition which was brought out only two years ago. I don't know the statistics about Americans owning stocks or trading them online now or then, but it's pretty difficult to argue that tech stocks behaved irrationally only after Moore published his books. Regardless, online trading existed quite awhile before Gorilla Game was published. Every smart analyst/investor told us about 15 to 20% maximum drop and what a great buying opportunity they bring to individual investors. This is where I really strongly disagree with you. There have been people posting in this thread all along stating that the markets and specific stocks were waaaaaaaaaaaaay over priced. As it turns out, those appear to have been the really smart ones if we measure their brain power by their ability to predict that particular change in the markets. Please be reminded that there are people in the thread still telling us that today. --Mike Buckley