To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (5687 ) 10/3/2001 2:15:16 PM From: Chip McVickar Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 8150 Perfect Example of the politicians failure to understand basic public relations. They're talking down the markets to push through an agenda. It is not productive and is Rediculous...! Should be talking about how to prevent it.., not accept it...! Hubbard says Sept 11 shock likely pushed economy into recession (European Investor) Wednesday, October 3, 2001europeaninvestor.com White House chief economist Glenn Hubbard said it is highly likely that the US economy is now in recession as a result of the Sept 11 terrorist attack. "The probability of two quarters of negative growth is high," Hubbard said in testimony to the Senate Budget Committee, Hubbard said "The short-term outlook is not good," Hubbard said. But he added there is "every reason to believe that a recovery will begin in 2002," and he echoed President George Bush's endorsement of further fiscal stimulus to assist the rebound. Hubbard said he believed that the US would have been able to avoid a recession - or two quarters of negative real GDP growth - before Sept 11. Hubbard said the economy is facing considerable downside risks, and said there could be a "significant period of contraction" if consumer and business confidence falters in coming weeks. Senate Budget Committee chairman Kent Conrad said there is a "growing consensus" between the White House and Congress on the need for more fiscal stimulus, and only the details of the size and shape of the package needed to be worked out. While Congress has taken the advice of Federal Reserve board Alan Greenspan and former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin to wait for more economic data before enacting a stimulus package, "I don't think we can wait to long, because if we're going to have an effect, we need to decide on the size of a stimulus package and the elements of a stimulus package," Conrad said. "Chairman Greenspan mentioned a figure of one pct of GDP or 100 bln usd - it was not entirely clear to me whether he inlcuded steps that have already been taken in that 100 bln usd, but in surveying economists we have received estimates" between 50-100 bln usd to give the economy a lift, Conrad said. Conrad said there is general agreement between Republicans and Democrats that the surplus for fiscal year ending Sept 30 2002 is now 52 bln usd, down from the most recent official forecast of 176 bln.