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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (57038)	10/3/2001 2:42:55 PM
From: pgerassi	Respond to of 275872

Dear Joe: Given the following, I think it highly unlikely that Intel has more than doubled Q2 sales. 1) RDRAM sales are not running at twice normal. Thus any chipset prior to i845 or VIA Px266 could not be supplied with sufficient quantities of RDRAM to build 4 million MBs. 2) i845 has not been around long enough to get on a lot of OEM vendors. And the rate of i845 production is not yet high enough. 3) VIA's Px266 is being retarded by Intel and sufficient quantities are probably not yet available for OEMs for the volume required (2 million MBs last month already in OEM systems by 9/30). Thus, Intel may have sold more P4s than last quarter, but not more than 2 times last quarter (est range between 1.2 and 1.8 million P4s in Q2). Now given that the rumor is for P3 production being sharply curtailed (to force P4 purchases), the fact that Q3 saw a decrease in PC shipments and that AMD seems to price its CPUs to a point that all are sold each quarter, it is highly likely that AMD has gained market share on Intel again (all of the losses in PC shipments must come from Intel, if AMD is at least the same in volume (if not higher due to Dresden increasing production all of the time as it is still ramping and Athlons being much favored over Durons in the DIY markets)). Pete