Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (132498)	10/3/2001 6:57:42 PM
From: John Chen	Respond to of 164684

GST,re:"zero interest rates". I guess all those 'CD/Bonds' investors ( usually the retired folks) have to come to the party and play the games. 'Zero-interest' ==> 'no income"... Interesting time. Chinese has a saying: "wealth never last 3 generations". We're right on schedule. PC is the cause. Give credit to the lawmakers to create a 'global village' environment for the future generation to 'suffer'. Look at history, something just don't mix (well). Islam and Christianity, boy... this the bravest experiement a government can take on. I wish it was not performed on US soil. God bless EVERYONE. By the way, didn't 'God' 'order' the killing of all 'first born'.

To: GST who wrote (132498)	10/4/2001 7:26:05 AM
From: Paul Merriwether	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

<< Ya, I have no don't that whipsawing is bad. It the unemployment situation that concerns me. Stimulus can pump up asset prices and leave the economy no better off. Without wanting to overdo the Japan comparison, they have been a laboratory in what can happen in a post-bubble economy. Zero interest rates, stimulus like nobody ever conceived would ever be undertaken by a government and yet they have been in a recession that just won't quit -- and I am more than passingly familiar with their banking situation, no need to worry about not taking that into account. Its a global downturn at this point -- it is something to think about. We had a liquidity driven jump in stockprices -- lets see how we do now as we face the unemployment numbers. >> GST Your Japan's comparison _is_ overdone. In 1989, Japan had a real estate bubble which would shame the valuation of ETYS('member that one?) and YHOO. Banks were up to their ears in shaky loans, the companies had(and still have) a cross holding structure. One company going down, took out everyone else. Further, the BOJ really f***ed up their 12 year of "financial stimuli"! While the US has had its share of excesses, we have already paid the price. Consider for instance, the 80% drop of QQQ from its highs. I contend that not only current unemployment is below its "historical" target rate of 5.5%, with the economic stimulus, spending, low interest rates etc. the unemployment is almost certain to go down. Significantly! In fact, I am afraid that the current situation is a jet engine attached to a moped--we would likely overheat within 6 months! Regarding "global downturn", I think its more like a global bottoming. Asian markets are certainly acting like they have bottomed and Europe/China never did slow down that much. In fact, watch out for Chinese red chips(CITIC, China Mobile, Bank of China etc.) going on a global buying spree. They are generating a lot of cash(during what you call "global downturn") and (imo) they want to look beyond the China/satellites. With the global equity prices where they are(in the doghouse), and China's WTO entry, I would not be surprised by such a scenario... regards PWM