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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (29394)	10/3/2001 9:13:26 PM
From: ajtj99	Respond to of 30051

Well, I certainly appreciate your input here. It helps us all make sense when things don't seem to make much sense. I was a bit shocked that the SPX moved above 1065 today, but it was inevitible with CSCO and INTC going up. It appears you are looking for a .382 re-trace of this move up from the 1383 low. That's pretty bullish, but I guess that's expected when you're wearing your horns <G>. From there I would imagine 1620 is our next line in the sand, possibly down to around 1570 or so, then up to around 1700, another Fib re-trace to somewhere in the moderate to mid 1600's,and finally a push up to the final resistance. That's if I'm reading your zig-zag correctly. Just estimating high/low cycles around 2-weeks long, that figures to be around 6-weeks from now for the high. That's mid-November. Adjusting for actual cycles, it appears maybe you're looking at November 23-26 for the high. Maybe the 23rd would work better, as retail sales would not be out yet. The failure at the upper resistance line needs to be spectacular, so I'd imagine we need lousy holiday sales to help give it a bit of oomph. As for the 2002 scenario, I think we need to have a rally beyond 2250 in order to have a drop into fall 2002 and a bear-rally into late 2002 and early 2003. However, it seems that unless we get major economic improvement, the support/resistance line could repel any attempt to go above 2250 after the 1st quarter. Maybe we get a low in April 2003 instead of October. Maybe they'll find a new use for routers and switches that will make sales explode. They need to think like Arm & Hammer Baking Soda did 20-years ago (buy our product, and pour it down your drain to make your drain smell better). If only a router in your trash can would disinfect and deoderize it too. Maybe instead of Pokemon cards the next fad will be kids collecting and trading memory chips. Maybe make them on boards in the shape of cartoon characters. They're so cheap, it's probably less expensive to use DRAM than ABS plastic <G>. Sorry, lots of random thoughts tonight.