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To: Shack who wrote (15526)	10/3/2001 9:52:57 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

No clue in regards to the "4" I have to defer to you guys on that. There were some nice sticks today on some of the indices that i'm seeing. I think if this is to continue this first wave up should be smaller, pullback to support on the resistances that were just taken out, higher lows...then the bigger wave of buying. it's a bit of a conundrum for me, since: 1)historically this is the worst month for tech/nasdaq, 2) in '98 the bullish percents put their lows in in Sept, reversed up, and all the indexes put their price lows in in October a few weeks later. 3)and This is an especially nagging sticker in my side ******************************************** bearforum.com [Bear Forum - www.bearforum.com Archive 8/19/01-9/7/01 $VIX and finding the bottom Posted By: ebt111 Date: Friday, 7 September 2001, at 1:03 a.m.] *************************************************** So I have to stick to my guns here, if I'm able to be close by my desk, and the opportunity is there, I'm willing to pull hard on some short term longs here...and it's tough not to want to chase. We just had some of the lowest readings EVER in some of the bullish %s last week, one index went to 0!, and the VIX was pretty damn high there. This terrorist shock event was very similiar to the fiasco in Oct.98, in that it so unexpected. It definitely influenced the cycles I think, inverted them. The market was headed down regardless, but with the latest unprecidented FED PUMP thanks to the Terrorist shock on the heels of bullish % #'s VERY close to 98 levels preceeding it, we could be set up for some brief power up here. It will have to prove itself ALL the way, but there could be some good money to be made on the longside here before the inevitable reversal back down to lower lows in a few weeks. It will be dangerous I think, I doubt I'll be close enogh to play it, so I'll probably have to wait a little longer to get my final targets. Everyone's situation is different.

To: Shack who wrote (15526)	10/3/2001 10:10:52 PM
From: The Freep	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Dammit, Shack. . .you're supposed to answer those questions, not pose 'em! OK. . . let me take a crack at this. I don't know when the pullback stops (or starts) but I would think that if this is a real rally, then the pullback won't be too strong. that whole 8950-9100 area on the Dow has spots to work as support due to prior resistance AND there will likely be fib retraces in there, depending on how high we go and what breakout spot you wanna use. We've already crawled through a lot of resistance on the way up here. . . we're somewhat extended (as 12% rallies will do). . . but I don't profess to know. Personally, I think it would take some negative news to derail the rally quickly and cause a retest soon. The only negative I see on the Dow is that GE has run up quite a bit and seems, well, heavy to use Allan's phrase. Also, Shack, did you see GE finishing a correction up today? I would think that the 1620ish area could stop the Naz (old April low and 1629 the WTC gap). Or maybe 1660 (which would be a 38% retrace of the 2103 Aug top to the 1387 Sept bottom AND 1669 a WTC gap fill). And actually, 1600 mighta been resistance, too. I think we closed off from the high enough that we won't gap into the gap, so maybe we'll see what happens there tomorrow? (Or maybe we sell off from the get go. Or maybe neither.) BTW, the Freepish Contra Indicator continues to work as, despite me throwing out cautionary tales about April, I did buy some Dow puts before the Fed meeting. Sigh. the freep