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To: Cooters who wrote (15563)	10/9/2001 12:01:26 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Coots, << 1xRTT as it exists today or any time in the near future sure as heck isn't faster than DoCoMos 3G as it existed June 1st or today ... Comparisons are the trick, eh? >> They seem to be. If the technology isn't ready it's a whitepaper war. We have at least 6 whitepapers published or sponsored by Qualcomm or CDG, starting with Ovum's that focus on comparative (peak) data rates and phoney baloney cost per megabyte derived from same and "availability" (whatever the heck that defines as). In addition we have one heck of a lot of material published in the last year that has been expunged from Qualcomm's web site, and I don't ascribe that to a lack of storage on the server. I noticed that Andy Seybold was just quoted as saying that "the South Korean systems are providing data speeds of up to 153 Kbps, nearly twice the speed of the NTT DoCoMo system". Now here is a guy that despite his admitted bias for CDMA the technology, and Qualcomm the company, was always able to be relatively objective, now parroting Qualcomm's management, and Qualcomm's whitepapers. I'm not sure what that accomplishes. So far as I'm concerned it diminishes his reputation, and if his reputation is diminished, so his effectiveness. << I am most intrigued by DoCoMo's system. In addition to viewing a successful implementation of a 3GPP-derived WCDMA as defying the laws of capitalism>, I would like your opinion on where DoCoMo's system is, relative to HDR in QCOM's lab. >> I find it pretty darned hard to comment on a technology that has yet to see the light of commercial day, to one that has not. HDR got out of the lab last winter, and we had about 20 friendly users in Tokyo hustling back and forth between two base stations using HDR "Hornets" or whatever they call them gizzmos. According to Ovum "market trials" also occurred in the US and Korea. Now we are told that the MSM5500 is "pre-commercial" (and presumably so is the CSM5500) which kind of makes me think that some additional field trialing of 1xEV-DV (more or less compliant with the IMT-2000 1xEV-DO standard) is going on or worst case about to commence, and perhaps sometime soon we'll see the first "Commercial Beta Trial" commence, although probably in Korea (for "World Cup") but unlikely in Japan (for "World Cup"). << In other words, if QCOM and friends were asked to deploy an ev-do system now for KDDI, would it meet or exceed DoCoMo's system? >> QCOM and "friends" don't seem to be quite ready to "deploy" an ev-do system right yet, although production shipments of the MSM 5500 (were supposed to have) commenced last month. There is still time however. The Ovum whitepaper claims that 1xEV-DO will be "commercial" by end of 2001, and when they say commercial they are stating "commercial launches" (plural), so I'm waiting. I won't be overly discouraged if these "commercial launches" stretch into next year. In addition, it is obvious that KDDI is not yet ready to deploy an ev-do system since they are not ready to deploy 1xRTT, and I doubt that they want to be a guinea pig. If and when 1xEV-DO achieves 2.4 Mbps peak rates in a real "commercial" fixed environment with average throughput of 1.4 Mbps and average mobile throughput of 880 Kbps then it will have met the Ovum claims and it most certainly will at that time, whenever that time is, be faster than DoCoMo's WCDMA. << I am assuming, but am open to correction, the following parms exist at the moment: - Limited handsets are required, so: A) Handset cost is not an issue. B) Manuf. scalability is not required at this stage. C) They can be replaced later. - Battery usage is not an issue. - Handoff is not an issue. - System capacity isn't even close to an issue. << DoCoMo is now "commercial" in the sense that a limited number of handsets (2) and modem cards (1) are available to subscribers in all DoCoMo outlets in a relatively small geography (although one with high POPs), but obviously WCDMA in very early stages and their is a lot of debugging and optimization left to do. I would be rather hesitant to attempt to evaluate WCDMA on the basis of the 2 early handset models available from NEC and Panasonic. Each of those "issues" you mention are "issues' to be resolved. They will be, over time but not this year. Meantime, for those that are interested in whose got the "fastest" technology at the moment (which is how this conversation started) FOMA is capable of peak downlink speeds of 384 kbps im packet mode and 64 kbps in circuit switched mode and and both are fully integrated with voice. v. 1xRTT at 153 kbps in packet mode and 14.4 kbps in circuit switched mode, and I suspect we'll see modem cards, or chips embedded in laptops well before we see handsets that allow dual-mode 1xRTT/1xEV-DO. << I wholeheartedly wish you will tell me I am confused, w-CDMA is much further along than I believe, and probably something about my stock being worth more than $44.....<gg> >> WCDMA will not start mass deployment until 2003 (Japan) and 2004 or so elsewhere. That's one of the reasons why "our" stock is at $42. Maybe there is a reasonable market for 1xEV-DO and maybe that will help the share price. In the interim, it would be nice if 3GPP2 could pick a framework for 1xEV-DV. I happen to think that there will be a much larger market for integrated voice and data. Go DoCoMo! - Eric -