Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul_philp who wrote (47482)	10/4/2001 7:38:58 AM
From: Apollo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Paul, thanx for your sharing of the GM comments from the GGlistserve. if you make a monthly contribution to a portfolio, keep it out of the equity market for the foreseeable future. My thought here is that we are laying the table for a very prolonged gorilla game and you want to have as much dry powder for that game as you can. I do not believe the market will bounce back, so I think you can miss the bottom by several quarters and not miss out on much of the appreciation..... Geoff Moore and co-authors did a great job of presenting a method for the layman to analyze a technology company and its niche, thru the Gorilla Game. As UF pointed out earlier, GM's contribution included a writing style that made the difficult material more comprehensible. Frankly, I don't think GM knows jack-didley about "the market". While storing "dry powder" certainly makes sense, and what I have simply referred to as "cash" when running past Portfolio Surveys on this thread, I would disagree with his notion of NOT making monthly contributions. That runs against the rationale behind the benefits of "dollar cost averaging", in which one inherently purchases more shares at a lower cost. From personal experience, all of my equities are not my GG portfolio, but include my non-taxable 401K, Sep-IRA, 403b plans which make monthly contributions. I'm delighted to be making monthly contributions throughout this unfortunate decline in the market over the past 18 months, and over whatever period it will take to recover. Apollo

To: paul_philp who wrote (47482)	10/4/2001 9:09:49 AM
From: LowProle	Respond to of 54805

More from Moore Thanks to ardethan, for asking for the clarification.

To: paul_philp who wrote (47482)	10/4/2001 10:04:14 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 54805

Paul, It's good to see Moore clarifying his thoughts -- that he's not contemplating selling shares to create cash but he's also not contemplating adding new money to the market right now. That's exactly my strategy. The problem with the term, market timing, is that it means so many different things to so many people that it easily becomes a source of confusion rather than clarity in a discussion. If people believe that you, Moore and I are timing the market by using the above strategy, that's understandable. In my particular case I don't think of it that way because my intent isn't to time the market as much as it is to wait until I can more easily see the fundamentals of the various companies I'm interested in. As one person put it yesterday in the example of the airplane, the vision is very hazy at best for me right now. I'd rather wait until I can see more clearly. --Mike Buckley

To: paul_philp who wrote (47482)	10/4/2001 11:11:00 AM
From: gdichaz	Respond to of 54805

paul: Looking ahead is all we can do in the real world. The past is past. Can we learn from history, sure. But it is what we do now that matters. (There is no choice, n'est pas?) What could have, would have, is gone. So what now? Having been fortunate to see that networking was a growth area, I bought Cisco in 1990. And I bought Wellfleet and others for a basket. All did well but Cisco did best so I moved toward it until it was the only networking company I held. Worked out well. [This was before GG but the ideas were similar - just that they were my own based on research and observation] So now, what to do? Let's think together. With all the "stimulus" from monetary policy and fiscal policy, will 2002 be a bummer or an opportunity?. Will there be a falling tide in 2002 which will sink all boats. Seems unlikely, no? No one knows of course, but perhaps by Nov/Dec we will have a clue or two. Will a rising tide (if it happens) raise all boats? Probably not. The boats which are likely to survive (one) and prosper (two) are those with a "moat" in Buffett speak, or a those in the techology area which Moore and his other two coauthors pointed out had a leg up due to their major advantages as outlined in the GG. Now what? To each his own. For me, there is only one "gorilla" in which I see the sort of advantages I saw in 1990 for Cisco. Pause (yawn), Qualcomm. Again, personal DD is absolutely essential. Not a recommendation. Only a personal opinion which I act on by keeping Qualcomm as about half of my portfolio (through thick and thin BTW). Best. Cha2