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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (106019)	10/4/2001 9:04:40 PM
From: Robin Plunder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Jon, last spring we had a similar drop in QCOM which seemed hard to explain. After a while, it became apparent that we had an earnings deceleration, due to slower chip set sales, and earnings estimates were cut from 1.30 to 1.00 for this year. I hope we don't have another earnings deceleration, but it sure feels like it. Last spring we also had realization that wCDMA would be delayed significantly, and the revenues to QCOM would also be delayed. Perhaps the Nxtl news is bringing home a similar realization: that, around the world, capital spending for wireless will be constrained, and this will lead to slower growth for QCOM. If China experiences slow growth, for example, due to a retrenchment of the US consumer, it seems likely that capital projects in China will be delayed. It is really hard to imagine that chip sales will stagnate at this point....but maybe they are. Robin

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (106019)	10/4/2001 9:11:21 PM
From: Pierre	Respond to of 152472

Then ... therefore, TA absolutely predicts QCOM should suck some more, for a while? Next support is around 35. Does seem absurd. Still ... Pierre

To: Jon Koplik who wrote (106019)	10/5/2001 3:57:44 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 152472

Based on my limited understanding of technical analysis (TA) ... Is it clear that the people who think looking at past stock price behavior is useful in predicting future price behavior ... Based on QCOM closing at a new 3 month (and 6 month) (and 12 month) (and 24 month) low ... And, based on QCOM being below all relevant moving averages (a mathematical certainty, given today's close was a new 2 year low). Then ... therefore, TA absolutely predicts QCOM should suck some more, for a while? The chart simply represents the 'reaction' of investors or traders to certain events. It cannot "predict", but some conclusions can be drawn - and evidently some were drawn in regards to Qualcomm recently - regardless of any 'news' about Qualcomm (already out or coming soon). With the stock nearing the April lows on heavy volume and then breaking below the April lows, now the stock will need to seek out some of the previous support levels and go through the process of finding a bottom, testing that bottom and basing. That all takes time and the chart will simply reflect the 'reaction' to all of that process. It might even spur a downgrade or two as similar events (breaking April lows) have spurred downgrades for other technology companies in past months. If you are aware of the books "How to Make Money in Stocks" by William O'Neil or Stan Weinstein's "Secrets for Profiting in Bull and Bear Markets", they are two basic books that include technical analysis and are fairly easy to understand. No witchcraft involved in trend analysis for earnings and for charts. Both books simply lay it out in plain language that all can understand. After reading those books, if one wants to confirm or 'freshen up' ideas, there is a daily radio show which you can access on the internet from 4 PM to 5 PM each day following the market's close (or listen to at any time via the archives) which is based on both of these books. The host, Gary Kaltbaum, is also involved at tradingmarkets.com. You can listen to what he has had to say concerning Qualcomm by going to the link page for the program here (he talks about it being the best short on the Nasdaq yesterday and you can hear his comments if you fast forward the radio show to around the 44 minute mark which also happens to be the price Gary put out an email to clients to short Qualcomm yesterday - $44 and change): WHNZ Investor's Edge Archives broadcast.com As I mentioned, he talked about Qualcomm on the show (October 4th show around the 44 minute range of the hourly program) as well as had it in his daily email from TradingMarkets.com as a good short candidate at $44 and change. He's not the only one, and these things tend to feed upon themselves as everyone sees the same thing at the same time and "boom!", the stock drops. This, within the context of the overall market bouncing and all the healthy skepticism surrounding such a bounce which included 2 days of 5%+ gains for the Nasdaq (there have been 21 of those days in 2001 - yet the market is down 70%). There was only one day from the lows of October 8, 1998 to the top in March of 2000 that experienced an up day of over 5%. That was October 8th itself - yet the market went from 1300 and change to over 5000. Briefing.com provides technical analysis of stocks and indexes with support and resistance points. Here's a link talking about the Nasdaq in general from yesterday. Scroll down to the middle of the page for the 12:59 ET 'Chart Watch' comments on the index: briefing.com BB