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To: GST who wrote (132591)	10/5/2001 10:46:46 AM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Liquidity means shit to somebody sitting at work thinking "my job could be the next to go... Agreed. I think "Lawrence of America" Kudlow had it right this morning when he said tax cuts, i.e. actually putting cash in people's pockets, will do more to restore confidence than either liquidity or gov't spending programs. The other guest at the time (on CNBC) said essentially that consumers' confidence is not helped by talk of $75 billion of "stimulus" or by tax money spent on roads and bridges. They make the connection only when they see more cash in their pockets. Immediate tax cuts, as opposed to the delayed ones already passed, are required. Re the payrolls number, I thought one of the articles we saw the other day had September numbers already - maybe it was an estimate. In any case, my understanding is that the 199k had a little of the 9/11 effect, though not all of it by any means. OTOH, the unemployment rate had none of it. Interestingly, the August payrolls loss was revised down from 113k to 84k. That brings the YTD number to 1236k and the monthly Q4 avg required to reach 2 million is now 255k. September may end up being revised higher, BTW, but not by enough to close the gap greatly, IMO. October, I'll guess, may be as high as 250k, but then I heard this morning that Northwest Airlines is actually calling a few of the furloughed employees back as traffic has picked back up a little. Point is, there are lots of offsetting factors that make predictions about the next month or three very unreliable. Lastly, it is important to remember that unemployment is usually a lagging indicator. It will peak after the economy bottoms. Bob