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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe NYC who wrote (57353)	10/5/2001 3:39:20 PM
From: kapkan4u	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

<But on the other hand, there is now the beginning of the Christmas season bookings and orders. We will see how strong that proves to be. Prior to the terrorist attacks, I was optimistic that Q3 would be the low point and Q4 would be up. Now, I have no idea.> The Christmas selling season is likely to be sabotaged by targeted terrorist attacks. Look for bombs going off in crowded malls at the start of the shopping season. Also Intel and AMD have large product transitions, which will cause buyer confusion and wait and see attitude. Everybody -- chipmakers, OEMs and investors are betting too many eggs on the Christmas season to confirm the bottom in Q3. As such it will not happen. I expect massive inventory problems in Q4, especially with P4/SDRAM boxes. Kap

To: Joe NYC who wrote (57353)	10/5/2001 11:43:54 PM
From: pgerassi	Respond to of 275872

Dear Joe: Even Intel admits that the last month of Q3 makes up a majority of unit sales. Everyone else has seen a drop in overall demand in September instead of the anticipated increase. Thus, by most accounts September was smaller than July and August. Intel assumed that September would be larger than both July and August. It was not. A 33% higher September would yield only 83% of anticipated Q3 or a drop of 17% QoQ. Intel did not know its September sales in the last mid Q CC and certainly did not anticipate the events of 9/11. This is borne out by the fact that very little buying occurred after the attacks and even if it went back to normal 2 weeks later, over a third of the month's sales would have been lost. Well just take 1/3 of 51% and you get 17%. As to AMD having market share losses, there have been reports of Athlons and Durons being sold out making for preparations for the desktop Palomino rollouts. Any unit losses or increases would be mostly borne by Intel. It does not make sense that the unit market increased with all regions showing softness differing only by degree. Thus, Intel lost unit market share. The only thing we are arguing about is how much. Remember, Intel has made no update since before 9/11. Many here assumed that having no warning by end of Q2, AMD was ok. You know how that turned out. CCs by both companies are not until after the start of the MPF this month in 1.5 weeks. AMD appears to have at least two separate rollout events before then. Pete