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Strategies & Market Trends : TATRADER GIZZARD STUDY--Stocks 12.00 or Less..... -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TATRADER who wrote (25228)	10/5/2001 7:22:52 PM
From: NW_Trader	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 59879

Hi Mark, Thanks for the sympathies, but may be premature - no, I didn't enter gold today, as I expect the XAU to still dip (as you did before today). IMHO, the moves we saw today were just those who wanted a hedge for the weekend since they weren't comfortable either cash, bonds or stocks in general. Absent the start of hostilities this w/e, they'll be selling on Mon, so I'm looking to buy at lower prices still. With the Sec Def in the ME this w/e, don't think things will get started by us. Of course, we may not be the initiator .... and I'll be chasing that train and in need of your sympathies. Observation: Winter is starting in Afghanistan and Ramadan begins Nov 16th, so if there is to be any military action it will have to come soon. By military action, I don't envision the Gulf War scenario of armored columns. However air insertion, support and extraction, not to mention small unit ops and LRRPs (long range recon patrols) become more difficult with winter. 25 years ago, I traversed Afghanistan (with some difficulty by road), and things have not improved there since the Soviet occupation and then the civil war. A very difficult environment with little infra structure. As I'm trading for a paycheck, I can only hedge a small part of my capital in gold for the longer term - as I've done from time to time on what seemed to be the lows over the past year+. When I enter the golds as traders, my returns will have to come sooner than 3 to 9 months. (I would have entered DROOY below 1.1 this week.) Borrowing Rashid's words "the problem with those gold stocks is they're boring to watch" (sorry if I misquote you Rashid, but I think that was the gist of what you once said). As I get some spare change, I'll commit some additional to golds, or will try to jump on board once the move starts in earnest. Meantime, I'll continue to play with the likes of JNPR, QLGC, TQNT, MU, BRCD and try to preserve my capital while growing it some. Have a great weekend all - Peace and Justice --- Patrick BTW - ABX isn't on your gold list - too hedged?? Most of the smaller golds did give a preliminary buy signal today, that late surge skewed the stochastics, but the bigger caps like NEM, ABX, HM, MDG and PDG haven't "gone gold" (so to speak).