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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: alburk who wrote (47556)	10/5/2001 9:02:55 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

Andrew, << 2G wireless isn't a gorilla game. >> Well, I totally agree with you, BUT a gorilla did emerge within a segment of 2G wireless, and that gorilla is ever persistent Qualcomm. Digital wireless mobile telephony (2G) went through a long period of hypergrowth starting in 1992, with committee based architectures based on TDMA (GSM and IS-54/IS-136 - and throw in a little PDC). When CDMA was finally commercialized in 1996 it quickly entered its own period of hypergrowth and a tornado ensued that lasted the better part of 3 years, and from that tornado a sustainable mass market was created by Qualcomm around a proprietary open architecture that they control (IS-95 or cdmaOne). I really do not think that there will be a gorilla in 3G wireless either, but Qualcomm will continue to be the gorilla of evolved cdma (cdmaOne/cdma2000) a niche market within the whole industry.. In 2G Qualcomm is what Moore terms a local gorilla but a gorilla none the less. Qualcomm is the chimpanzee of 2G wireless - where the other market leaders are Ericsson the dominant prince of infrastructure, and Nokia the king of handsets. Ever persistent Qualcomm is the wannabe gorilla of 3G wireless - so far what appears to be the chimpanzee of what promises to be 3G wireless. At the moment it appears that committee based architecture will once again dominate and we will have a royalty game once again. - Eric -