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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Buckley who wrote (47564)	10/5/2001 9:51:41 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Mike, No proprietary control of the architecture ... lock the competitive advantage is significantly diminished ... It's not diminished IF Qualcomm becomes so fortunate as to have the only workable technology that supports the committee-controlled standard. >> I boded that "IF" for a reason. I would raise the point size of the "IF" were I able to. << I'm a lot less concerned about Qualcomm's competitive advantage than when there will be a substantial 3G market. >> A lot of people are concerned about that, and that concern, that uncertainty, is essentially what has so significantly affected the wireless sector. That is exactly what has affected Qualcomm in recent weeks and especially in recent days (KDDI postponement, possible delays in initial deployment at Sprint PCS, Nextwave, Nextel, etc, etc, etc.). I'm convinced there will be a HUGE sustainable 3G market, but it will be several years before mass deployment commences. I think we all get a little distracted with this 3G v. 2G stuff. We are in a transition between the two. This is tough stuff. The major discontinuity is NOT CDMA. Heck, wireless pioneer Dr. William Y. C. Lee maintains that CDMA was 3rd generation to TDMA's 2nd generation wireless. The major discontinuity in 3G is the all IP network and we are really not going to see all IP networks rolled out significantly till 2005 and that may be optimistic. The holy grail of Radio Acees Networks then becomes either 3GSM WCDMA with the HSDPA extension or 1xEV-DV or a harmonized version of the two and by the time we see all this and a mass market starts to evolve we'll all be looking for the gorilla of 4G, << if there aren't any customers it doesn't matter who has the competitive advantage or how strong it is. >> You got that one right. <g> - Eric -