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To: Oeconomicus who wrote (132630)	10/6/2001 12:41:23 AM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164687

Bob: If I am reading this right -- ftp://146.142.4.23/pub/suppl/EMPSIT.CESSUM.TXT it seems the issue is the mix and not the loss of jobs itself. Manufacturing jobs have declined every month in the past 12 months and are running at about 1 million jobs lost in that period of time. Other sectors have been offsetting that, especially earlier in the year, although, as reported, a drop of 199,000 in September is among the worst months in a very long time -- and in that case the 199 is total net lost in all sectors. I don't often puruse these numbers -- the 1,3 million jobs I mentioned was not what I was basing my 2 million number on -- I just happened to hear a talking head on CNBC say that After I had posted to you. If these numbers are correct, we have a pattern of accelerating job losses but more until now the shift in sectors is more striking that the losses themselves. I will stick with the observation that this trend is gathering steam and the numbers we are seeing are NOT lagging indicators of where employment is going -- to say that is a perversion of the meaning that employment numbers are a lagging indicator. My concern is that unemployment will snowball as things work their way through the economy. I am NOT saying that employment numbers are a leading indicator, but I think we are at least six months away from the end of steep jobs losses -- thanks for the link.