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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: donald sew who wrote (21010)	10/6/2001 10:26:52 PM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 52237

OCT 6 INDEX UPDATE --------------------------------- There's alot of discussion that some some sort of bottom has been set and that there will be a strong multi-month rally, which at one time I too believed. Right now, Im not sure whether there will be as strong of a rally as I previously suspected. Rather than put too much into whether there will be a strong rally or not, I will just use my short-term technicals to get in or out at the pivots points and take it from there day by day. Before I get more bullish/less bearish, I would want to see the major indices move significantly beyond the GAPS in mid-SEPT and break above the FIBONACCI 62% rebound levels calculated from the MAY PEAKs. Here are those levels: FIBONACCI REBOUND LEVELS: DOW 11350-8062 9311 9706 10100 (38% 50% 62%) SPX 1316-945 1086 1130 1175 NAZ 2328-1387 1745 1858 1970 NDX 2071-1089 1462 1580 1698 MID SEPT GAPS: DOW 9605 SPX 1086 NAZ 1674 NDX 1342 Of course I won't get more bearish unless there is strong evidence that the SEPT LOWs will be broken to the downside. I would not be surprised if the major indices just trade within a range where the upside is within the FIBONACCI levels mentioned above, and with the lower level around the SEPT LOWs. If there is a successful retest, I still wont get overly bullish/less bearish until those resistance levels mentioned above are broken to the upside. Just want to be cautious, but that doesnt mean I will be sitting out; I will just get in at the pivot points per my short-term technicals and take it from there. Again, Im not saying that there won't be a strong rally - just that I want to see significant bullish hints/clues. In my personal mutual fund account, I have a partially hedged position with a downside bias, and I am still holding onto my QQQ JAN 2004 25 LEAPs, but will try to sell calls on them. Have a nice weekend.

To: donald sew who wrote (21010)	10/7/2001 6:09:14 AM
From: Justa Werkenstiff	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Don: Good points. Here is another chart. Wedges on XLF and BKX were broken to downside. Looking at correlation between those two and the SPX suggests that SPX will follow suit. It looks as if the SPX broke the wedge but rallied back to touch the lower part of the channel. It just does not seem likely that the financials -- at this point -- will provide any stability to the overall market and will also tend to lead it lower for the time being. finance.yahoo.com