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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold and Silver Mining Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Claude Cormier who wrote (2548)10/7/2001 10:00:41 PM
From: goldsheet  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4051
 
> But production can be (and is) lowered very easily. You simply cut one shift

Simple ? Well, I hate to sound like a broken record, but gold peaked near $415.20 in February 1996 and it appears 2001 will be the 6th consecutive annual increase and another record. Common sense tells us if prices rise you increase production, and if prices drop you decrease production, but the reality appears that one increases production to reduce unit cost to cope with lower prices. I know it's a silly race to the bottom and a liquidation of assets, but we have seen it happen. Common sense does not seem to apply to the mining business ;)

I have not done any analysis of the zinc industry, but it would not surprise me if they have also tried to ramp production in an attempt to lower production costs faster than the market price. Now going to USGS site (and others) for some zinc data.

To keep on-topic (Hi DougAK), I started 2001 looking for sideways gold (275+/- 25), so the kind of gold stocks that I liked were those that could make money based on $275 and did not depend on higher gold prices. Firms like Agnico Eagle, Goldcorp, and Meridian appear to have met that profile - good assets, huge production increases, low per ounce costs, great cash flow, and even earnings. Wonder if there are any other gems out there, or do we have to buy marginals (Kinross, Echo Bay, Durban, Cambior) and pray for disaster leading to higher gold prices?



To: Claude Cormier who wrote (2548)10/7/2001 11:06:18 PM
From: goldsheet  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 4051
 
OT
Did a little zinc research, which wasn't too exciting.
Production has averaged 7.3 million metric tonnes,
with the only trend being about a 1%+ increase per year
over the last 15 years, with very little variation and
few dips (regardless of the wild price swings of zinc)

Short version in a picture:
goldsheetlinks.com
red is production, green is a linear regression