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To: Eric L who wrote (47642)10/7/2001 8:20:12 PM
From: Larry S.  Respond to of 54805
 
Killer App in wireless: cbs.marketwatch.com



To: Eric L who wrote (47642)10/7/2001 10:17:19 PM
From: slacker711  Respond to of 54805
 
What is the title of the slide presentation (or file name or date). I must have it on disk and I'd like to look at it.

I believe that the presentation was from their analyst day during December 2000. It is titled "Making the 3G Market" and was given by Dr. J.T. Bergqvist.

Just found the presentation on Nokia's website...I must have missed it the first time. They are pretty good about usually archiving their presentations.

nokia.com

I think I am interpreting the slide correctly.....100,000 W-CDMA basestations were expected to be shipped during '01 (around the 6m mark). An ASP of $100,000 (I think that this is too low) for the basestations and 1% royalty rate would have resulted in $100m this year and $300m next year.

Obviously the W-CDMA purchases have been delayed....but if the '01 and '02 basestation targets are reached by the end of '03 this would still result in $400m worth of infrastructure royalties during the next 9 quarters. I think that my calculation is pretty conservative in terms of percentages and prices. The big question mark would still be if Qualcomm is going to receive a royalty on the entire basestation or just on the channel card....

Slacker