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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (2521)	10/8/2001 10:27:31 PM
From: rails99	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Hi Frank: Re.: OPEC A study of the OPEC minutes (of the historic period of the "oil embargo", during the 70's) will possibly give anyone a good reason to heed the old saying, about how one(even nations) may be doomed to repeat mistakes already made in history. Please note that I really appreciate the work you have done to maintain this thread. The experience afforded to the threadsters is both informative and entertaining. Thanks; Rails

To: Frank Pembleton who wrote (2521)	10/9/2001 8:10:36 AM
From: Glenn Petersen	Respond to of 36161

OPEC Moving Toward Output Cut By Peg Mackey dailynews.yahoo.com DUBAI (Reuters) - Momentum is building within OPEC (news - web sites) for a supply cut of 700,000 to one million barrels per day (bpd) to boost sagging oil prices, but the timing for any reduction has not been decided, a Gulf source said on Tuesday. ``There is a movement (in OPEC) for a cut,'' the Gulf source told Reuters, adding that oil ministers were in the midst of consultations. ``Consensus is starting to build for a reduction of between 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) to one million bpd.'' The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries wants ultimately to restore prices to a $25 per barrel target for its basket of seven crude oils. But fears of recession have deflated oil prices by 25 percent since the September 11 attacks on the United States, pushing OPEC's basket price below its $22-$28 range for 11 days running. The basket fell to $19.75 on Monday. Key producers Iran and Kuwait have said they temporarily could tolerate prices at, or slightly below, $22 given the bleak prognosis for petroleum demand and the world economy. But OPEC power Saudi Arabia has vowed to move prices toward the group's $25 objective. The kingdom's call appears to be gaining support. OPEC Secretary-General Ali Rodriguez said on Tuesday that the exporters' group would not allow prices to stray below $22 for long. ``OPEC will do something if prices stay below $22, because it is not going to let that situation continue,'' Rodriguez told Reuters from OPEC's Vienna secretariat. He added that the ministers were still discussing a variety of oil market scenarios and it was too early to say how OPEC might react to the latest oil price slump. ``The scenario of war has been combined with a world economic slowdown and there is not a single analyst who can make a firm forecast with any certainty,'' Rodriguez said. ``That's why we are studying various scenarios and we have to be very prudent, we cannot rush into a decision.'' TIMING CRITICAL While more members are backing the call for a fourth output reduction this year, the timing of another curb is still a matter of debate. ``There are some who want to cut now and others who want to wait until the U.S. retaliation against Afghanistan (news - web sites) is over,'' the Gulf source said. The oil cartel chose not to activate its automatic price band mechanism, which stipulates that OPEC cut output if its reference price says below $22 for 10 consecutive trading days -- a point reached on Friday. The producers are due to meet again on November 14 in Vienna, but the possibility for an emergency session before then has not been ruled out. The Gulf source said agreement had not been reached on whether to involve key non-OPEC producers in any OPEC output action. Some members fear losing market share to rival non-OPEC producers whose output, lifted by two years of lofty prices, has been rising. But a hastily-arranged meeting between major OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers set for Sunday in Madrid was postponed due to scheduling snags. OPEC delegates said it was not clear when the meeting -- which was to include Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela, Algeria and non-OPEC's Mexico and Russia -- would be rescheduled.