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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Art Bechhoefer who wrote (2537)	10/8/2001 2:02:57 PM
From: Frank Pembleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Art, I'll expand on my view of the ME because it'll explain my flip-flops on heavy oil. We all know the driving force behind the price of commodities; those of us that are investors wake up in the morning with this realization instinctively. After listening to OBL yesterday afternoon, he also understands the dynamics; he also realizes that the average Arabian on the street doesn't. The best I can tell is that the grand majority is getting poorer, hungrier and angrier. They’ve been fed a line of BS on religion and a fabrication of a cradle to grave socialist state, which is dependent on the price of crude. So when OBL states that this is a religious war, he really means the U.S. has made some sort of secret deal with the moderates for cheap oil (disregarding the free market) which in turn threatens the dedication of a Muslims duty to pray 5 times a day. OBL, Hussein and a few others will continue with the conspiracy theories until the moderates are booted out of power. So even if you aren’t religious, chances are you’re poor, hungry and angry – there will be a consolidation of the ME countries sooner than later. The ST weakness I expect in both oil and gold has everything to do with President Bush and his flawless performance. In respect for the WTC he’s the counselor, for the NYSE he’s the cheerleader, for the military he’s the hawk and for every man, woman and child he’s a role model. Regards Frank P.