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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (34688)	10/8/2001 4:16:55 PM
From: Logain Ablar	Respond to of 68746

John: JMO I think the market is starting to discount some bankruptcies in the bank loan loss portfolios. I think even banks with good underwriting will have problems. It doesn't take much of a % change on the portfolio to be a good hit to earnings. Not sure of banking rules but in insurance (at least claim reimbursements from reinsurers) if its is over 90 days it has to be adjusted out of STAT surplus. I'm pretty sure its the same for investments Its a combination of the airline debt, other companies adversely related to the WTC tradegy (lodging, casino's) and just normal business having tought times servicing debt in this environment. Remember a lot of companies locked in labor contracts over a year ago (the airlines, i only remember Delta) the autos (all 3), and then a lot of the suppliers to these industries. As sales drop this not only hurts profits & raises the b/e point but makes servicing the debt an issue. Look @ F. I think the subprime stuff as people lose employment is also factoring in. C just acquired a subprime lender late last year or earlier this one. I remember when CBT (now part of Fleet) back in the late 80's was supposed to have good underwriting and after the fact we find out they were as bad as some of the savings and loans. CBT was caught up in chasing fees (instant gratification) vs. the slow but steady growth. Not saying Fleet is this way but I'd say there are plenty of CBT's we'll hear about in this recession (just not as large). I'm sure there are more reasons and maybe I'm not right on with my assessment. I would think the companies that do fess up do so b/4 year end (build reserves this year so next years bonus is not in jepoardy, bank management might have been trying to get by this year but not now, its time to fess up). Hey enough doom and gloom. I'm still bullish in the tech area & think in a few days (I heard thats all it will take to bomb / destroy the Taliban military targets) the market starts to grind higher. Storage has been on a tear. Networkers are showing some strength (no position) and some selected chips are fine. I've been seeing some insider and or corporate buying which should also bode well.