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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (9220)	10/9/2001 11:45:44 AM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 23153

All excellent points, KB, re: Bay Area Real Estate. The low interest rates are selling homes to a crowd that had been priced out of the market for two years (or more). Yet even as low as they are, it does not stop the inventory from expanding. Many laid off tech workers are still living off severance (at least my ex compadres at 3Com still are). Some have even slunk so low as to fill the many goverment jobs that have been laying unfilled for years. Soon, the government jobs will be filled (if not already) and the severance will run out. I've been trying to convince my wife to wait until december to buy. Of course she wants a place now. I should be able to win this battle. Ideally, the best time to buy IMO would be at the first signs of a tech uptick (read Gottfrieds charts). Maybe even wait a few months after that. What is your perception? Warp

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (9220)	10/10/2001 3:02:02 PM
From: Warpfactor	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

Re: Bay Area real estate Thanks for your sobering input, KB However, I do not believe that the SF Bay Area is quite as dependant on technology as Houston is (was in 1980) on energy. San Francisco is a banking and finance center, is home to Chevron, Clorox, New United Motors (joint GM/Toyota), among other. There are other dynamics at work in California which also limit real estate downside, IMO: 1) Large immigrant population which keeps growing. I've worked with many Chinese and Philipino's - buying a house is the end-all, be-all for them. The Holy Grail of success in America. If you want to build on that, buy rental property. Most of the immigrant people I worked with do not give a rat's A about the stock market. During the late 90's, they finally started moving 401K money to equities, but since the downturn, they've now sworn off equities forever. Now opting for the Bond and Govt securities as their 401K options. 2) Inner Bay Area is virtually built out. Yet the population keeps rolling in. If you happen to own property, and you like parks and wilderness, you've got to love the Bay Area. Huge swaths of park land off limit to development. Look at a map - it could be 30-40% of the land area reserved for parks. 3) Read article in the paper a few weeks ago. Communities that can build do not really want to. Due to legislated restrictions on taxation, the payback for building houses is negative in many cases. Each new house only adds about $500 per year to city coffers. That doesn't pay for the infrastructure to support the house (police, streets, etc.) My goal is to wait it out until the first signs of economic recovery, perhaps 6 mo. (maybe more, maybe less). Then move in for the best location. However, my wife may have the final say. My guess is that home prices do not go below 1995-1997 levels - 30% is max drop from here. BWDIK. Warp