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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: isopatch who wrote (2616)	10/9/2001 11:40:59 PM
From: ezspkns	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

OK ... I was long a bit of silver on COMEX as it seemed a bottom was put in after it cracked the 4.30 range and based around 4.20 - that was going into 09/11. Closed those out and bought some Dec silver calls. After failed breakout attempts in silver and gold I was not so confident of my bullishness, so I started adding Dec. puts in quantity as cheap downside insurance. Was REAL ichy to close the long side yesterday (could have preserved some profit but wanted the exposure), and with the morning weakness today I did close the calls for a wash. Still have some gold calls. Now I don't like not having a large exposure to the unexpected, but ... so be it. The unexpected is indeed a rare event to the markets. My current plan is to read the tape and close the puts at an opportune moment, then go to have brunch at my usual greasy spoon hangout. This will allow the market to close and prevent me from doing some fool thing like hunting bull on the same day I bagged a bear. But my guess, and a guess it is, is silver will base somewhere 4.28 - 4.40. If it cracks 4.30 with determination, then I try to hold what puts I may have for a retest at 4.15, and the bear case rises towards the top. I expect a quick trip back past 4.50 - if we trade heavy down to it - that will alter my view. My gut tells me the gap in silver will hold. I also have trimmed expectations in favor of banking profits. My gut also says playing the oil bidness long based on the ME news / hazard potential carries with it more risk than this speculator cares for in general ... but that of course is not news to the savy readers here. I'm thrilled some of you are playing it for what it's worth, but now I'm afraid I need to wait for confirmation of a bottom and happy days again. Its always about the risk, and the long side is not a minimal risk situation IMVHO. Iso, you yourself spoke of that lul in the action. I also anticipate a lul, though it seems the radical islamics may not see it our way. That lul allows the bear case to awaken again. Tough call, but there are always opportunities and allowing one a bit higher on the risk scale to pass is no sin in the markets. I did get a nibble of this move with some PTEN calls ... My guess is PTEN does not own a breakaway gap here.... All of the above of course is subject to change at a moment's notice. That is why I typically don't hang a for rent sign over my a crystal ball - she's ALWAYS in use. Plus some of the most useful info I find on the web is of the general sentiment type - not specifics. Anyway, I benefit a great deal from the signal heavy posts here and on a few other SI threads. You all keep up the good work and leave the crap for others. EZ