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To: abstract who wrote (43128)	10/10/2001 12:56:11 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 65232

abstract: Thanks! Tomorrow I'm off to Ann Arbor for a conference and a grad school reunion. I'll be back in Chicago next week...let me know if you would like to meet for lunch or dinner sometime. Regards, Scott

To: abstract who wrote (43128)	10/11/2001 4:40:28 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Economists Forecast More Pain Before Strong Rebound By Daniel F. DeLong, www.NewsFactor.com Wednesday October 10 01:25 PM EDT If economists responding to a poll released Wednesday by Washington, D.C.-based Blue Chip Economic Indicators are right, the technology sector is in for more of the dismal times that have been haunting it for the past year. The highly respected monthly survey of economists showed that the country was already in a recession before the September 11th terrorist attacks, and that things have grown progressively worse since then. High-tech manufacturing companies' performance has already dropped to recession-like levels, which means that most of the damage to production and jobs in the sector has already happened. Recession Will Spread Other parts of the economy will begin to experience what tech companies have had to live with for nearly a year, the economists said. "In the short term," the poll said, "mounting layoffs, rising job insecurity and weakening wage and salary gains will dampen consumer demand. Corporate earnings will remain weak, prolonging the collapse in business investment." "The better tech companies will survive this and prosper," Merrill Lynch analyst Steven Fortuna told NewsFactor Network. Silver Lining If there is a silver lining to the Blue Chip survey, it is that the aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus that could lead to a vigorous rebound next year. The poll warned, however, that the forecast could be subject to a number of risks. "Analysts are putting a lot of faith in the ability of aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus to overcome weakened consumer and business confidence," the poll said. "Another terrorist attack in the U.S., or a widening of the conflict beyond Afghanistan (news - web sites), would imperil that view." Strong Growth Ahead While economists think the gross domestic product (GDP (news - web sites)) will shrink at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the third quarter of the year and 1.1 percent in Q4, the group said it expects the first quarter of 2002 to grow at an annual rate of 1.4 percent. The GDP growth will gain momentum each quarter, hitting 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2002. The battered high-tech sector has weathered almost every kind of calamity this year -- from the dot-bomb implosion to a rapidly shrinking economy. The third quarter was so dismal that Compaq (NYSE: CPQ) CEO Michael Capellas told an investor meeting earlier this month that his company has run into what he termed "the perfect storm," causing the personal computer maker to forecast that fourth quarter sales would plummet by US$1 billion. PC Shipments Drop Overall, PC shipments in the United States are expected to fall about 10 percent, the first-ever decrease. Sales in other parts of the world, which were expected to cushion the domestic market's meltdown, are also in trouble. "There has been no compelling reason to upgrade computer systems," Banc of America analyst Marc Cooper told NewsFactor. "And the current uncertainty won't help matters." Despite the bleak news, there are some winners. Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) has managed to find a way to keep its sales up, actually growing slightly. Cisco Upbeat Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) is forecasting that sales of its products will be in line with what analysts expect. Cisco CEO John Chambers last week told investors that the worst is behind for his company, and he expects sales to rebound sharply in 2002. Other analysts are less sanguine, saying that Chambers has been optimistic all year and that his forecasts have not necessarily proven to be correct.

To: abstract who wrote (43128)	10/22/2001 6:05:03 PM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

AOL Time Warner Inks Landmark Deal AOL Announces Landmark Deal With China Making It First Foreign Broadcaster in the Country By JOE McDONALD Associated Press Writer Monday October 22, 5:37 pm Eastern Time BEIJING (AP) -- AOL Time Warner Inc. [NYSE:AOL - news] is taking Chinese state television into American homes in a deal announced Monday that makes the company the first foreign broadcaster given direct access to Chinese audiences. The exchange lets AOL Time Warner break into a fast-changing Chinese market where nearly every home owns a television and viewers number in the hundreds of millions. Communist authorities regard television as a key propaganda tool and carefully control it, though millions of Chinese watch television from abroad with illegal satellite dishes. Officials appeared to be willing to relax restrictions slightly in exchange for access to American audiences. AOL Time Warner said broadcasts of its Chinese-language CETV channel would be begin next year on cable systems in Guangdong province, a prosperous part of China's southeast. CETV's programming is a mix of Chinese entertainment shows, cartoons, game shows, movies and sports. It also carries versions of some U.S. shows like ``Miami Vice'' and the cartoon ``Johnny Bravo'' dubbed into Chinese. AOL bought the six-year-old channel last year and relaunched it in February. It will be the first time that a foreign broadcaster reaches Chinese audiences with the government's approval. CETV, based in Hong Kong, already is seen in Taiwan, Singapore and elsewhere in Asia. In exchange, China Central Television's English-language Channel 9 will be carried by Time Warner cable systems in New York City, Los Angeles and Houston, said Tricia Primrose, a spokeswoman for the company in New York. No financial details of the deal were released. China's huge audience and potential advertising market have attracted interest from other foreign broadcasters. Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. is trying to land a deal similar to AOL's. Gerald Levin, AOL Time Warner's chief executive, said in a prepared statement that the deal was a ``significant step in the growing relationship between AOL Time Warner and the people of China.'' Zhao Huayong, president of China Central Television, said in a statement that the deal was a ``milestone, which has turned a new page in China's TV industry.'' AOL Time Warner relies heavily on the U.S. market for its media businesses -- which include Time magazine, HBO, CNN, AOL and the Warner Bros. film and music studio -- and it has been stepping up its efforts to expand overseas. ``There are any number of U.S. broadcasting entities who would like to enter that market, and it's all a question of how to overcome the various political hurdles,'' said Rob Martin, media anlayst for Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group, a brokerage based in Arlington, Va. ``AOL seems to be in a good position to do that given its size.'' The programming that American audiences will see on CCTV-9 resembles a slower, less adventurous version of U.S. educational television, with a mix of news, music and cooking shows, documentaries on nature and travel, Chinese lessons and sports. Chinese broadcasting officials express hope that showing it in the United States will change American attitudes about China. CCTV-9 is the only English language channel put out by China's state broadcaster. Yet CCTV-9 may have difficulty competing for attention with scores of American cable channels. Its programs can be interesting -- especially nature and travel documentaries -- but production quality is uneven and shows are staid compared with U.S. television. The exchange gives AOL Time Warner access to one of the most affluent areas in China. The channel is to be carried on cable systems in the Pearl River Delta northwest of Hong Kong, said Tricia Primrose, an AOL Time Warner spokeswoman. She said she didn't know how many households those systems serve. Viewers there already can watch television from neighboring Hong Kong. The former British colony is not covered by central government censorship, and its television stations are livelier -- and their news reporting more aggressive -- than state-run mainland media. Primrose said the channel carries no news programs. She had no details on whether the agreement includes provisions for Chinese censorship of CETV programming.