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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (842)	10/10/2001 7:09:42 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1643

Antimony roskill.co.uk Prices still focal point of industry Interest in the antimony sector continues to be focused on prices. During 2000 alone, antimony prices rose from a 25-year low of US$1040/t in May to a three-year peak of US$1,900/t in September, while early 2001 saw Chinese prices weaken to $1,150/t in May. The key role held by China in the world supply of antimony ensures that the availability of Chinese material remains the main factor determining trends in antimony prices. China accounts for over 80% of both mine production of antimony and of recorded exports of antimony metal. The potential for a recovery in prices depends mainly on the level of Chinese export quotas and on the ability of the Chinese government to enforce these quotas. Export quotas for refined antimony are reported to have been reduced by 20% from 60,000t in 2000 to 50,000t in 2001. Prices below production costs and difficulties in obtaining export licences have forced some Chinese producers to lower their 2001 production targets. Future growth in demand for antimony will remain highly dependent on the level of demand from the flame retardants sector. PET catalysts provide a further area of growth, concentrated in industrialising countries where markets for PET in carbonated soft drinks, beer and mineral water are less mature. The key trends, issues and developments in the industry are now analysed in this major new report from Roskill. It provides a clear insight into all areas of the industry and an authoritative analysis of the prospects for the future. REPORT HIGHLIGHTS Prices of over US$1,500t are unlikely to be sustained unless the Chinese government controls output as well as exports. At prices of US$1,500t, higher output from China and the potential increase in the supply of antimony metal from Kyrgyzstan and Tadjikistan will again exert downward pressure on prices. Current installed and planned capacity should meet the predicted 4%py rise in demand for antimony trioxide through 2003. Demand-led factors are unlikely to exert upward pressure on antimony prices. Prospects for higher, and less volatile, antimony prices will therefore continue to depend primarily on the success achieved by the Chinese government in controlling antimony exports. World demand for antimony trioxide in flame retardants is forecast to rise by some 4%py from an estimated 83,500t in 1998 to around 95,000t in 2003, although the downturn in the US economy may slow down growth in demand for plastics raw materials in the USA and in Asian countries, exporting to the USA, during 2001. Little or no growth is forecast for antimony metal in metallurgical markets. Expanding markets for lead- acid batteries will increasingly use valve-regulated lead acid batteries containing grids of lead-calcium rather than lead-antimony alloys. Low metal prices have caused world output of antimony to fall by over 25% from peak levels seen in the mid-1990s. World mine production was estimated at 110,200t in 1999 and is thought to have risen in 2000 due to higher Chinese output. Potential growth areas of mine production lie in Myanmar, South Africa, Australia and Kyrgyzstan