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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (47769)	10/10/2001 8:52:19 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Respond to of 54805

I'm too busy with real work, but it would be interesting for someone to play some games along this line with historical prices ... sounds good, as many things do, but can one really do it, particularly with gorillas. I say particularly with gorillas only because there are so few of them so that one has a limited set of profiles to choose from. E.g., it has been noted many times in this forum when timing came up that CSCO has had a particularly notable rollar coaster of multiple dramatic price falls, even not including the most recent one and yet, despite these dramatic price falls, the overall growth in value has been stunning. So, if we assume that we are currently just in the most recent of these troughs, is there some criterion that you could apply to the historical pricing that would give you exit and re-entry points and what would be your return using that method compared to simply holding on the entire time. Noting, of course, how precise your timing would need to be on the exit and entry points, e.g., testing the sensitivity by seeing what happens to the return if one only makes trades on the monday following the signal or even the first of the month following the signal. Given that some of these peaks and troughs were market driven, i.e., other gorillas would likely to have been in the wrong state to move money gorilla to gorilla, put the money in a money market or something while it is out. Then apply the same criterion to MSFT. My bet is that it is really hard to jump off the roller coaster near the top and equally hard to jump back on again at the bottom.