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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (8907)	10/11/2001 4:40:56 AM
From: stockman_scott	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Economists Forecast More Pain Before Strong Rebound By Daniel F. DeLong, www.NewsFactor.com Wednesday October 10 01:25 PM EDT If economists responding to a poll released Wednesday by Washington, D.C.-based Blue Chip Economic Indicators are right, the technology sector is in for more of the dismal times that have been haunting it for the past year. The highly respected monthly survey of economists showed that the country was already in a recession before the September 11th terrorist attacks, and that things have grown progressively worse since then. High-tech manufacturing companies' performance has already dropped to recession-like levels, which means that most of the damage to production and jobs in the sector has already happened. Recession Will Spread Other parts of the economy will begin to experience what tech companies have had to live with for nearly a year, the economists said. "In the short term," the poll said, "mounting layoffs, rising job insecurity and weakening wage and salary gains will dampen consumer demand. Corporate earnings will remain weak, prolonging the collapse in business investment." "The better tech companies will survive this and prosper," Merrill Lynch analyst Steven Fortuna told NewsFactor Network. Silver Lining If there is a silver lining to the Blue Chip survey, it is that the aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus that could lead to a vigorous rebound next year. The poll warned, however, that the forecast could be subject to a number of risks. "Analysts are putting a lot of faith in the ability of aggressive monetary and fiscal stimulus to overcome weakened consumer and business confidence," the poll said. "Another terrorist attack in the U.S., or a widening of the conflict beyond Afghanistan (news - web sites), would imperil that view." Strong Growth Ahead While economists think the gross domestic product (GDP (news - web sites)) will shrink at an annual rate of 0.6 percent in the third quarter of the year and 1.1 percent in Q4, the group said it expects the first quarter of 2002 to grow at an annual rate of 1.4 percent. The GDP growth will gain momentum each quarter, hitting 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2002. The battered high-tech sector has weathered almost every kind of calamity this year -- from the dot-bomb implosion to a rapidly shrinking economy. The third quarter was so dismal that Compaq (NYSE: CPQ) CEO Michael Capellas told an investor meeting earlier this month that his company has run into what he termed "the perfect storm," causing the personal computer maker to forecast that fourth quarter sales would plummet by US$1 billion. PC Shipments Drop Overall, PC shipments in the United States are expected to fall about 10 percent, the first-ever decrease. Sales in other parts of the world, which were expected to cushion the domestic market's meltdown, are also in trouble. "There has been no compelling reason to upgrade computer systems," Banc of America analyst Marc Cooper told NewsFactor. "And the current uncertainty won't help matters." Despite the bleak news, there are some winners. Dell (Nasdaq: DELL) has managed to find a way to keep its sales up, actually growing slightly. Cisco Upbeat Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO) is forecasting that sales of its products will be in line with what analysts expect. Cisco CEO John Chambers last week told investors that the worst is behind for his company, and he expects sales to rebound sharply in 2002. Other analysts are less sanguine, saying that Chambers has been optimistic all year and that his forecasts have not necessarily proven to be correct.

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (8907)	10/11/2001 9:15:32 AM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 19219

08:36 ET Brocade Comms (BRCD) 19.02: Surges 8.4% in pre-market. Hearing from traders that move sparked by Bloomberg article in which company CEO indicated that he expects BRCD to meet Q4 sales numbers. CEO did not discuss earnings outlook. 08:30 ET Economic Data : Jobless claims fell 67K to 468K in the Oct 6 week vs the consensus of 510K; the sharp reversal in claims after the huge jump last week will be somewhat positive for the market, as it might allay concerns that last week was the beginning of a much more bleak trend in claims.