THE REGION: Will the US win?
By Barry Rubin
(October 11) Everyone wants to believe that the free world's leader is going to win the war against terrorism. I remain unconvinced, though I'd prefer to be wrong.
First, this is not a war against terrorism, but a war against the one terrorist group responsible for the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and Pentagon. It isn't even a war on anti-American terrorism, since all previous such acts are being forgiven in this process.
If you killed Americans or took them hostage in Lebanon - as did Hizbullah, with Iranian and Syrian help - this is forgiven.
If you killed Americans in Saudi Arabia, as did Iranian-sponsored groups, this is also forgiven.
And if you blocked the investigation, making it impossible to punish the perpetrators, as did Saudi Arabia, this is forgiven.
If you helped Osama Bin-Laden's forces, making possible the September 11 attack - as Sudan, Yemen, and Pakistan likely did - this is forgiven.
We are seeing, in effect, a blanket amnesty on all past terrorism.
The hint is that this appeasement is temporary, and that once Bin-Ladin's group has been eliminated the turn will come for others. I doubt it.
For this operation is being run largely by those who conducted the Kuwait war and let Iraqi President Saddam Hussein survive to this day. At any rate, as the writer F. Scott Fitzgerald said in a different context, there are no second acts in American lives.
More likely, the scenario will be as follows:
Step one: Get Bin-Ladin and a few dozen others.
Step two: Declare victory and go home, expressing gratitude to those who "helped" win this victory.
It should be noted that, except for the Afghan government, the United States has not criticized any other country since this crisis began.
Wait! I forgot. There is one country the US has criticized: Israel, whose victimization by terrorism exceeds that of any other state in the world.
The problem is that current US strategy encourages Yasser Arafat to believe he can get away with more violence and terrorism. Consequently, though Americans don't understand this at all and are shocked to hear it, US policy is getting Israelis killed by emboldening Arafat to let attacks continue, instead of using the September 11 tragedy to scare him into stopping them.
Actually, though, aside from this very serious reality, Israel need not worry very much about US policy right now. The American statements are cynical, rhetorical, and there is no intention of demanding more Israeli concessions in exchange for Arafat's empty promises.
At the same time, Arafat has landed himself in a familiar situation. On the one hand, he has again gotten off easily, forgiven by Washington for rejecting two major American peace efforts (the Camp David summit and the Clinton plan) and breaking four pledges to American leaders to implement a real cease-fire. In addition, he's gained immunity as regards being declared a terrorist or being held responsible for the violence he's provoked.
On the other hand, Arafat has thrown away a chance to benefit materially from the crisis. He could have implemented a real cease-fire and demanded that negotiations be renewed at a time the US has an incentive to pressure Israel to give up more. Sharon's (proper) refusal to go along with this would have engendered a real crisis in US-Israel relations.
But as long as Arafat lets fighting rage and encourages selective attacks on Israel, the current situation - in which time is on Israel's side - will continue. If and when it eliminates Bin- Ladin, the US won't need Arafat any more and can return to its previous policy of doing nothing.
Meanwhile, the US government has created an unnecessary and painful domestic situation as politicians and the media compete in terrorizing the American public, albeit unintentionally. Lurid stories of additional attacks, including chemical and biological ones, pour from journalists' overactive imaginations.
People in much of America, with no good reason, are as nervous about terrorist attacks as are any Israelis.
HERE ARE four reasons I don't believe there will be any major attack in the US during the next 18 months or so:
- Bin-Ladin's forces have limited resources and put all their efforts into the September 11 operation.
- His remaining agents are currently too busy running and hiding.
- Staging a big operation in the US takes a long time.
- Using chemical or biological weapons is far more difficult than people are being led to believe.
Instead of scaring the American people, US leaders should inform themselves about the Middle East, a region many of them simply don't seem to understand.
Seven brief tips:
1. Force is respected. People may say that if you use force they will be angry with you. Don't believe them. They will be afraid of you, and will respect your interests more.
2. If you don't do anything, people will know it. Daniel Pipes has provided a detailed list of past terrorist attacks after which the US talked tough and did nothing. These failures contributed to the September 11 attack.
3. Pay attention to what's being said in Arabic, Persian and Urdu. Everyone may love America when they're speaking English - but watch what they say to their own people. It is often the opposite.
4. Don't be an apologist for those who injure you. If you demand that people prove themselves friends or enemies, why be afraid to point out when they are acting like enemies?
5. Appeasement doesn't work. All Western officials know this truth, but then, time after time, they try to please terrorists, extremists and dictators in the false belief that it will make them act properly.
6. Being liked never won anyone a foreign policy crisis. As President Theodore Roosevelt said, "Speak softly and carry a big stick." To put it in Hollywood terms, there are times you need John Wayne instead of Jimmy Stewart.
Middle Easterners don't need to be convinced that America is nice. They perceive "nice" as meaning "weak." Hasn't America had enough proof of this over the past 20 years?
7. Finish the job. If you don't get them, they will come back and get you. Remember Saddam Hussein?
Good luck, America, and please don't blow this one. None of us can afford it.
rubinbar@netvision.net.il |
