Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: michael97123 who wrote (54062)	10/11/2001 3:19:28 PM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

ST-Trading FWIW, I just initiated a significant AMAT short-term short play here at $35.10. I'm getting in front of the train and am probably early, but it's worth a shot. AdvocateDevil

To: michael97123 who wrote (54062)	10/11/2001 4:53:52 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Interesting history. Not sure I believe consumers are "getting back on their feet". Consumer spending is strongly correlated with employment levels. The latest guesses I've heard, is that the unemployment rate (after bottoming at 3.9% during 2000), will peak at 6% in 2002. That's assuming we get only 2-3 quarters of negative GDP growth. This effect will be counteracted by: 1. easy money 2. low LT interest rates, which causes home refis and cash-outs 3. lower taxes and more government spending Hard to say what the net effect will be. I think the SOX is 38% above its lows, because the panic selling is over, and the herd (professional and otherwise) has decided the world isn't going to end quite yet. The panic selling was an emotional response. And so is the rebound. I find it hard to believe that we are now at the start of a multi-year bull market, with the S&P 500 at a trailing PE of 30. That's not where bear markets end, or where bull markets start.