Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: fedhead who wrote (9149)	10/11/2001 7:27:21 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

And we are already pricing in the recovery. How do you know what any recovery will look like, especially with all of the stimulus out there? It is very difficult, if not impossible, to extrapolate accurately from the extreme bottom or the top of any cycle. BK

To: fedhead who wrote (9149)	10/11/2001 7:38:24 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Respond to of 57684

byteandswitch.com

To: fedhead who wrote (9149)	10/11/2001 9:20:01 PM
From: Mark Fowler	Respond to of 57684

Anindo jnpr is start of better times might be coming; let's hope we continue in that direction, two steps forward and one back this time.

To: fedhead who wrote (9149)	10/13/2001 3:32:22 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 57684

"I think earnings will rebound but demand will not go back to the 1999 levels for a long time. And we are already pricing in the recovery." In my humble opinion, we are indeed pricing in an improving 2002, but I don't think we are ANYWHERE near pricing in a relatively strong 2003 or 2004. For example, and most of my favorites look this same way, BEAS is on about .44 pace currently, and has a price of about 14.5, so it is selling at ~33x current pe. To me, that is about right, but at 9 it was ridiculous. If Beas trends up by the end of next year to about .55 pace, but is also projecting .75 pace by the end of 2003, I think the mood could well be such that a forward pe of 50+ is tacked on and it could well be at 35-40 bucks per share. So I guess the way I see this, we have seen darn close to the lowest possible prices, and the upside within a couple years at the most could well be 300-500% off those lows. I am as shell shocked as anyone, but I don't have my head so far up my butt that I don't realize that a return to a more speculative forward look is quite possible, given time. If beas was at an annual e pace of .90 by the end of 2004, I won't be shocked if it is at 50-60.....most of these sold at peg multiples that were much higher than that, not to mention pe's that were 2-3x higher. In summary, I don't think a return to very good numbers in 2003-2004 is priced in, although I do agree that if the nasdaq runs up to 2000 here pretty quickly as I suggested, it would indeed be pricing in a decent turn by spring 2002, and that could be early. I will also take profits above the 50 day and near the 200 day, as you suggest. It makes sense to me that this initial impulse will fade into a "show me" attitude around the 200 day moving average. To move past it the market will need to see solid evidence that 2002 will be better than expected AND 2003 will be a year of strong growth. So I guess I am saying that near term upside is limited to 2000, unless all this economic stimulus starts causing earnings surprises. I agree you are wise to become very cautious after this run is exhausted. Of course we will all know when it is exhausted;>)