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Politics : Piffer Thread on Political Rantings and Ravings -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MulhollandDrive who wrote (2368)	10/12/2001 4:42:14 PM
From: HG	Respond to of 14610

I read somewhere that for any kind of impact in the food area, the US has to airdrop about 7 million rations, for thats the number of hungry out there... Heres from Times Of India newwspaper... Afghan strikes may tire out America > NEWS ANALYSIS BY MAHENDRA VED TIMES NEWS NETWORK EW DELHI: The Taliban militia ruling in Kabul are unlikely to heed the warning of US President George W Bush, giving them "a second chance" to surrender. Like the British and the Soviets who failed to break Afghanistan into submission in the past, the US too seems to have failed to read the Afghan mind. The Taliban are not about to split in the face of week-long bombings and loss of life and property. Whatever their internal contradictions, they are likely to remain united against a common enemy. The few commanders who have reportedly changed sides have done so for local compulsions, or ethnic and tribal considerations, or for lure of money and position. This can hardly be called a split. The drawing of line between the hardliners and moderates among the Taliban seems to be more of an arm-chair exercise. That they have stayed united for five years and more is a testimony of their motivation. The military campaign can peel the Taliban structure and their defences over a period, but a collapse does not appear to be around the corner. This is clear also from the fact that their anti-aircraft guns are still active and the mighty coalition bombing them has gained air superiority, but not total control of the Afghan skies. Also, they have mounted their own propaganda machine highlighting the loss of civilian life and property. There seems a total mis-reading of the Afghan mind again on the part of the US-led alliance which dropped food packets along with the bombs. Dropping 37,000 packets of foodstuff like jelly and peanut butter would seem a mockery of any people, Afghans even more so. It is a PR exercise that may be a hit in the West, but it is in bad taste even to the moderate minds anywhere. It betrays a certain lack of sensitivity. If nothing else, such actions combined with war-time rhetoric -- the use of terms like "crusade" has barely been explained -- can only steel the resolve of the fighters. One week into the campaign to punish those it feels perpetrated the September 11 carnage, the US is now admitting that it is in the South Asia-South West Asia for a long stay. The earliest it could get near a military solution -- assuming that it will not change its war aims -- could be five to six months. Anything short of that would require something dramatic -- death of Osama Bin Laden after those protecting him betray him and give away his location. Even though the US is repeatedly saying that it is out to end terrorism in the world, many analysts, going by its past record and a highly Osama-specific campaign, believe that the US could walk away with its prized head, and claiming to be under pressure from the world community, call it a day. It is certainly a long haul, otherwise. Earlier assertions by US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that the fight against Osama and the Taliban regime in Kabul would be "a marathon" got obfuscated by Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf's statement that he had been assured that the campaign would be "short and swift". This claim invited a snub from President Bush. It seems clear that Musharraf, with anti-American sentiments running high on the streets in his country, was addressing his local constituency. The whereabouts of Osama still remain a mystery. He may be hiding in the extensive network of caves and tunnels in the Hindu Kush mountains that he helped construct during the 1980s war against Soviet occupation. Some reports put him in the remote Wakhan Corridor, a wild, uncharted, region of high, snow-capped mountains that extends northeast to the Chinese border. If locating Osama is difficult, getting him would be even harder. The mountainous terrain, the weather conditions, low visibility caused by frequent dust storms that makes air operations difficult and risky. Assuming that Osama is hiding in one of the bunkers or in caves underneath the mountain, it would need secret bombs and fuel air explosives (FAEs) to bomb him out. Bunker buster bombs are already in use. After all this aerial effort, the coalition would at some stage need to commit troops for ground operations. This would have to be in large numbers. As of now, expatriate Afghans, Central Asians and Turks are being sought out to be sent as mercenaries on high payment. But the availability of such fighters, combined with their reliability, cannot be the mainstay of any ground operations in a treacherous terrain. Assuming that the Taliban are thrown out of their seat of government and their military positions, there may be little to prevent them to take to the mountains for a prolonged guerrilla warfare. The US has received widespread support on the diplomatic front in its global fight against terrorism. But allies like Russians have refrained from committing themselves materially. The support among the Muslim nations is at the best lukewarm, and is wavering. Most governments there are facing resistance from vocal public opinion. The US has hinted at targeting countries outside Afghanistan, where Islamist groups have been involved in violent actions. There is a clear lack of unanimity within the coalition. Also, such a widespread campaign would place limitations even on the American military manpower and resources. It is a long haul in Afghanistan. Elsewhere, the scenario in the global fight against terrorism seems extremely hazy