Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (54108)	10/13/2001 10:43:35 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Jacob, you got to be careful with the historical records of P/B at the 98 trough. First, LRCX was in dire shape then with quite an outside possibility of following GCA to the land of the "has been", right now, they have build a cash hoard that will last them through any conceivable down turn. Second, many of the stocks in the recent swoon down after Sep 11 have gone below the 98 P/B. Your list almost tend to show that we have already been trough the "trough, and now it may start and make sense to calculate what would be the P/B at a rational future top. When you do that, however, remember to take into account that the 2000 top valuations were strongly affected by the "bubble" effect something that is not likely going to happen again any time soon. Zeev

To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (54108)	10/13/2001 11:52:58 AM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

My ballpark bottoms for AMAT, KLAC, and NVLS were ~2 times book or around $20. These were established at the beginning of 2001. Book value has varied for the 3 since then. Now, I am in my price ranges and I am implementing an accumulation program. I still have a negative price bias and an accumulation bias. Ballpark valuations give way to the market's short term reaction to current results and future expectations of war and profits. I try to be mechanical in my reactions. My negative bias means that I am more concerned about surprises on the downside. My accumulation bias makes this reasonable because even after selling into this rally, my cash is only ~25%. Of the new money I have to commit to AMAT, KLAC, NVLS, LLTC, MXIM, ALTR, and XLNX, I have raised cash back up to ~48%.