J.T., it was Mark Leibovit, Chief Market Strategist for Volumereversaltrader.com. About gold he said
"Well, you know, I haven't given up on some of the gold shares, too, Paul. I mentioned that, I believe, on our previous broadcast. I think you're going to see a little bit more inflation in this economy as the Fed stimulates and as the market moves higher. So I'm keeping a little trading eye on the Neumonts (NEM) and the American Barracks as well. I'm not forgetting about those".
Here is the transcript (http://www.nightlybusiness.org/) in case you are interested in reading it:
PAUL KANGAS: My guest market monitor this week is Mark Leibovit, the Chief Market Strategist for Volumereversaltrader.com. And welcome back, Mark.
MARK LEIBOVIT, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST,VOLUMEREVERSALTRADER.COM: Thank you, Paul. Thanks for having me.
KANGAS: The stock market was making an impressive comeback this week until today, and many analysts were convinced the relatively high volume and solid gains on the rally were signs the market bottom was behind us. Now, I know you look very close at volume in your analysis. Have we seen the bottom?
LEIBOVIT: Well, so far that appears to be the case, Paul. We had, as I call them, volume reversals here in the last several weeks. We have failed down side projections. It came within a time frame where you would expect to see a huge sell-off and bearish sentiment was running at a very, very high pace even despite the September 11th tragedy. So, not to say we're not going to have our choppy periods and not to say when we came into this morning, Friday, we weren't looking for a pullback anyway but so far except for a normal pullback in this pullback we saw today, though it recovered into the close-
KANGAS: So we won't get to the lows anymore?
LEIBOVIT: I don't believe so.
KANGAS: OK.
LEIBOVIT: But there's always a chance. You can retest them but our models and the volume shift says we should be to the plus side.
KANGAS: Right. Now, your annual forecast models have been amazingly accurate in recent years, so let's look at what it was for this year and tell us about it a little bit here. Everything was going fine. You were right on up until the end of August and early September, weren't you?
LEIBOVIT: Well, you know, things started to change. You know, we could always get into the conspiracy theory that somebody knew the market was going to sell-off in September. We've heard a little bit about that already. But the model was indicating a low in March, a rally in May, a pullback, as you defined it, and then a year end rally. So we've been off sync here a little bit, but it's still leaning a little more positive here and it has been on track. But, of course, nobody can predict acts of god or acts of terrorism.
KANGAS: Right. Well, do you think that they have rendered your forecast model for the rest of the year all but useless?
LEIBOVIT: I don't know that to be the case. You know, I'd like to give it the benefit of the doubt because the market still appears more positive than negative to me. But obviously the factors that were taken into consideration when we put it together aren't what has occurred.
KANGAS: Right. Now, give us a little bit about your investment strategy currently.
LEIBOVIT: Well, I'm positive, Paul. I think we're going overall a lot higher. I think on a six month, 12 month basis you're going to see a big advance here. Looking at NASDAQ in particular, we have a NASDAQ target of between 2,300 and 2,500. and that doesn't mean it can't go higher than that. So, that's a six month, 12 month comment. And with that view, considering how depressed NASDAQ stocks are, I'm very positive there, and the rest of the market, as well. So we're going to get our chops. We're going to get the kind of sell-offs we saw today. And my short-term view is you might even see a little bit more of a pullback into early next week.
KANGAS: Right. OK.
LEIBOVIT: But I think we're going overall higher.
KANGAS: Well, the last time you were with us in late February you gave us some stocks that are still higher despite the sharp sell-off we've had recently. You gave us Phillips Petroleum (P), Waste Management (WMI), Allied Waste (AW), Republic Services (RSG), Intergraph (INGR), AT&T (T) was at $15 then and it's up around $20 now. So those were good calls. Are you still with them?
LEIBOVIT: I still like all those stocks.
KANGAS: OK.
LEIBOVIT: I love AT&T. I love the Waste Management stocks. Every name there sounds great.
KANGAS: OK. Now, you had a couple of clinkers.
LEIBOVIT: We did.
KANGAS: The worst was IBIS Technology (IBIS), which was in the mid $20s. It's now about $6. What do we do with that?
LEIBOVIT: Well, we were stopped out. Generally, we keep a stop below where volume shifts or at 10, 15 percent below our price. So we were stopped out a ways back on that.
KANGAS: And with Corning Glass, also. That was around $30 at the time.
LEIBOVIT: Also, I mean, you know, when they don't follow through after our volume shifts we're out. That doesn't mean we don't like them now, though. They may be buys here. We'll have to look at them.
KANGAS: Well, let's look at them right now. What do you like?
LEIBOVIT: Well, you know, I like a lot of names. I like the names that you just gave me. I like Scholastic (SCHL), SCHL, which is, of course, the Harry Potter play.
KANGAS: OK.
LEIBOVIT: And, you know, I would go with some of these high tech names. But, you know, Paul, I mentioned this before in our previous broadcast, I would go with the QQQ, the NASDAQ 100. It's currently trading around the 33, 34 area. I see this going to the mid 50s in the six to 12 months and that's a conservative way of playing the whole NASDAQ.
KANGAS: OK. We only have about 20 seconds left. Any other thoughts on this market, Mark?
LEIBOVIT: Well, you know, I haven't given up on some of the gold shares, too, Paul. I mentioned that, I believe, on our previous broadcast. I think you're going to see a little bit more inflation in this economy as the Fed stimulates and as the market moves higher. So I'm keeping a little trading eye on the Neumonts (NEM) and the American Barracks as well. I'm not forgetting about those.
KANGAS: OK. But basically positive for the rest of the year?
LEIBOVIT: I think we should still get more of a recovery into year end and I'm looking for six to 12 months substantially higher in this market.
KANGAS: OK.
LEIBOVIT: So we're buyers on dips.
KANGAS: And put those stop loss orders about 15 or 20 percent under the current market of these stocks?
LEIBOVIT: Particularly when you're playing high techs.
KANGAS: I got you.
LEIBOVIT: Correct.
KANGAS: OK, Mark, thanks very much for being with us.
LEIBOVIT: My pleasure.
KANGAS: My guest Mark Leibovit, Chief Market Strategist for Volumereversaltrader.com. |
