To: Brandon who wrote (14441 ) 10/14/2001 11:33:15 AM From: KymarFye Respond to of 18137 Ever notice how often, near the end of great posts, people apologize for writing them? Thanks. There was one passage I found particularly telling: "So this can lead you to one of two conclusions. A) Nothing works and I might as well stop trading now. Those who are successful at this just lucky, statistics will dictate that some people will make money even if just by luck. or B) There is more to trading than simple mechanical things and what separates the winners from the losers has less to do with set ups than the losers think, and its more "something else"" When you're first getting seriously into trading, and not necessarily experiencing great (or any) success, such considerations can loom very large. Some of my worst periods of trading - in terms of p/l, in terms of successful execution of a trading plan, and in terms of my own feelings about what I was doing - are associated with periods during which I was familiarizing myself with the most negative theoretical perspectives on trading. It's very hard, for instance, to trade pattern-based set-ups when reading the work of theorists who believe they're no more meaningful than those infamous random coin-toss charts. Even Trader Vic repeats the canard - also to be found in the works of Niederhoffer and Malkiel, among others - about knowing market technicians by their frayed collars, old shoes, and other signs of financial distress. (Niederhoffer describes visiting the Edwards and Magee's HQ, and being decidedly unimpressed by the decor, the atmosphere, and the seemingly pathetic faith in the utility of long-term price levels.) When someone who appears to speak from authority argues that TA is a sham, claims that the markets are for all intents and purposes untradable (at least for non-insiders), and reports that "95%" of traders fail and that this, that or the other famous trader or TA exponent died penniless or insane or both, the lonely novice becomes even less likely to trade with any semblance of confidence - or success.