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To: Mephisto who wrote (615)	10/13/2001 5:27:57 PM
From: Mephisto	Respond to of 15516

Powell moves to calm India's anger Threat to attack militants' bases brings fear of revived war Rory McCarthy in Islamabad Saturday October 13, 2001 The Guardian Military analysts and diplomats warned last night that there is growing fear of conflict in the disputed state of Kashmir as India threatens to attack Islamist militants' bases in Pakistan. Colin Powell, the US secretary of state, will fly to Islamabad and New Delhi early next week, ostensibly to prop up support for the US war on terrorism. But his visit is also intended to address concern that the long-established hostility between the nuclear rivals may erupt again in Kashmir. His deputy, Richard Armitage, said in Washington last night that one aim of the visit was to "lower the temperature" on both sides. Indian ministers have threatened to launch a "hot pursuit" offensive against militant camps across the border in Pakistan after a suicide attack on the assembly in the state capital Srinagar last week, which killed 40 people. Pakistan's military ruler, General Pervez Musharraf, has placed his army and air force on high alert and his regime has made it clear any attack would be quickly repulsed. "This hot pursuit idea would be totally reckless. You would get a significant response from Pakistan," Rifaat Hussain, head of the defence and strategic studies department at Islamabad's Quaid-i Azam University, said. "An attack would be seen very negatively by the international community." For 10 years Islamist militant groups based in Pakistan have fought a guerrilla war against the Indian army in Kashmir, India's only Muslim-majority state. Since independence India and Pakistan have gone to war twice for control of the divided territory. They nearly began another after a bloody 10-week conflict in the mountains of Kargil in mid-1999. In recent months the Indian government has come under increasing pressure to attack the militants' training camps. On Wednesday the prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, said that "consultations for military action in Kashmir" were under way. A "hot pursuit" attack would involve a brief incursion by special forces across the line of control which divides Kashmir and aerial bombing of camps, military analysts say. Since the army seized power in Islamabad two years ago the international community has shunned Pakistan. The US has gradually shifted its allegiance from Pakistan to India, which it sees as a big consumer market and a key bulwark against China. But since the World Trade Centre attacks its attention has abruptly turned back to Pakistan which it now sees as a crucial ally in the military operation against Osama bin Laden and the Taliban. Sanctions have been cancelled, debt rescheduled and new loans promised. The partnership has clearly irked New Delhi, which accuses Pakistan of funding the militants fighting in Kashmir. It is angry because the US has not made its favours conditional on Gen Musharraf reining in the armed extremists in Pakistan, Brahma Chellaney, an analyst with the centre for policy research in New Delhi, said. "They would like the rewards to be linked to concrete evidence that he is applying in Pakistan the same logic that is being applied against the Taliban." The US has listed one of the Pakistan-based militant groups, Harkat-ul Mojahedin, as a terrorist organisation whose funds must be frozen. Sources close to the military in Pakistan said Gen Musharraf issued secret orders to the militant groups after the World Trade Centre attacks to rein in their action in Kashmir. He was infuriated when Jaish-e Mohammad, one of the most feared groups, claimed responsibility for the Srinagar attack last week. The group later retracted its claim. The US state department is now considering adding Jaish-e Mohammad's name to its list of terror organisations. The group was reported yesterday to have changed its name to Tehrik-al-Furqan in an attempt to avoid being listed. Mr Powell is expected to talk to New Delhi about increasing military links. In particular, India wants weapons-locating radars to use in Kashmir. "I think the United States wants to send the signal that we're not ignoring our relationship with India just because we've been working so closely with Pakistan," said C. Rajamohan, an Indian defence analyst. "With the military sanctions gone, they'll now start moving the pieces." guardian.co.uk