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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (4904)	10/14/2001 12:06:13 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

it seems at least possible if not likely that Iraq is the most unstable state of all in the region; I have to disagree.. I still believe that Saudi Arabia, followed closely by Jordan, and Kuwait, are the most unstable regimes in the region. Iraq has an extremely large Shiite population, so I don't see Bin Laden appealing to them any more than he does to the Iranians. And the Kurds probably don't have much fervor for Bin Laden either, but that could change. Syria could be another potential victim of increasing fundamentalism. The nation is predominantly Sunni muslim, yet ruled by the Alawite clan of Shiites who are able to rule only through massive intimidation and force. But Iraq... well, the Republican guards have the guns and their security apparatus, and so long as there is no discernible, or credible, ability for the opposition to fight him, they will remained subjugated. Hawk

To: Michael Watkins who wrote (4904)	10/14/2001 4:42:54 PM
From: lh56	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

hello michael, "Hussein is a Sunni somewhere along the lines..." interesting point. we haven't heard much from hussein, lately, have we? i'm sure he's been going to church regularly these days. all the usual dckheads in the region seem to be keeping a low profile, but that can't last. "...a Taleban / bin Laden overthrowing of Hussein might be a big prize for them..."* i'd suspect iran would favor that scenario, but, i don't think the taliban have the horses to take on iraq. they're too busy trying to recruit free agents from the northern alliance, who say they've already got them bought and paid for. "...Iraq is the most unstable state of all in the region..." you're absolutely right that whatever happens, iraqs' nukes and bugs weapons infrastructure needs to be turned into glass. i'm also watching egypt and pakistan as key trouble spots when the taliban are defeated. it's clear there's pressure to wrap it up before winter. here's a story on egypt's troubles. (if this is old news and i'm wasting your time, i apologise.) nytimes.com interview w/close aide of 'the blind sheik'. very plain, no spin. stunning. pbs.org regards, larry