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Technology Stocks : Applied Micro Circuits Corp (AMCC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: techanalyst1 who wrote (1629)	10/15/2001 10:22:01 AM
From: FR1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1805

Sorry, I didn't make myself clear. AMCC has big customers like NT and CSCO that put AMCC products in the orders that they are building. You can't deny the fact that the high interest rates of 2000 caused massive damage to the economy. Just look at the bankruptcies. Look at the NASDAQ - year 2000 was the most massive crash of its history (and the FED ignored it for the whole year). I remember listening to CSCO, SUN and lots of others screaming for rates to be lowered throughout the year. If there weren't too much product out then there, then why was there a need for the massive writedowns we've seen? Because CSCO, NT, etc suddenly found themselves with warehouses full of parts to complete projects for customers that were going bankrupt or baby bells that no longer needed to build out so they cancelled orders. The parts in this industry also quickly become obsolete. Since you had profits in the past and none in the future you writedown. ....why aren't we back to 2000 levels now? Because the customers are either dead or have little competition. If you are PacBell you have to roll stuff out because NorthPoint is eating your lunch. NorthPoint is dead now so you don't have to roll out anything. It's NOT only about supply. The other half of the equation is demand which is NOT only related to interest rates. Right. That's just what I said. Dead people don't talk. They do NOT force anyone with alot of debt on their books already to borrow more or even be able to refinance at attractive rates. Yeah, you are right. This is the dangerous part of the cycle for just that reason. If there is competition and demand then there is big ordering right now. If there is little competition you do not have to order. I still wonder why he was buying stock on the open market, if he didn't see value in the stock. I remember everyone bitching like mad in 2000 when he was selling like mad. He was right. Now he is buying. Probably right again. He talks to customers and we don't. Almost all companies low ball guidance. They've done it for years. When things were going up in 1999 AMCC would give positive guidance. I liked them best because they did not showboat during the CC and were fairly accurate. Btw... I think that analysts will likely be lowering estimates when they should be raising them.... I agree. Throughout 2000 brokerage firms were telling the public to hold tight as they dumped their shares wholesale. Now that we are at the bottom they downgrade stocks while their firms load up on the stock.