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To: Tim Luke who wrote (6975)	10/15/2001 9:56:26 AM
From: Jane4IceCream	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8686

I know, I know..... Waiting on ACAM to add to my bio collection. IMNX over 23 now. Jane

To: Tim Luke who wrote (6975)	10/16/2001 12:58:04 PM
From: Ploni	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 8686

I've owned Acambis since it purchased Oravax a few years ago. I'm surprised that Acambis isn't running up much higher. You mentioned the $350 million contract to provide smallpox vaccine. That's ancient history. It was approved by the Clinton Administration, was supposed to have begun production in 2004, and produced a total of 40 million doses over a 20-year period. (I.e., it was probably intended for use by the U.S. military.) The $17.5 million/year wouldn't have been bad, probably guaranteeing a $1.75 million/year profit from that order. But if you read the following article, you will see that the U.S. has asked Acambis to instead begin production in 2002. Also, federal officials indicate they may want production to continue until they have 281 million doses. Production will be 10 to 17 million doses per month. Message 16467345 So instead of producing 40 million doses over 20 years, Acambis will probably be producing 281 million doses over 20 months! Revenue projections were not published, but wouldn't seven times the volume bring in seven times the revenue? The article also says that five other unidentified countries want the vaccine. If they are the U.K., Italy, Germany, France, and Spain, that would be about another 300 million doses. Acambis has been a development stage company, well-funded by deals with big drug makers. Baxter owns 12%, and can increase their ownership to 20%. The company has promising vaccines against Yellow Fever, Japanese Encephalitis, and other diseases. What would a company with extraordinary sales of $2.5 to 5 BILLION over a two to four year period, with probably a cost plus contract guaranteeing a 10% profit, be worth, if it was understood that after that order was filled, revenues from other vaccines would be much lower? I don't know, but it seems that Acambis is greatly underpriced. The gains from the smallpox vaccine could either be distributed as a special dividend to shareholders, or used to buy other companies to ensure a continuation of a high revenue stream after the smallpox contracts are fulfilled. I guess it's risky in that the FDA hasn't yet approved the vaccine, but several Acambis vaccines are making excellent progress through testing, and they seem to know what they are doing with the technology. There is an active discussion board of Acambis at: boards.fool.co.uk