Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Ask DrBob -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: heehee1 who wrote (45936)	10/15/2001 10:57:11 AM
From: Louis V. Lambrecht	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 100058

heehee - NDX H&S. And not only on the NDX, best H&S on the SPX, Dow also has one. Have them on my radar screen since mid-April. They look like H&S, but depending on the charting programm, they are more or less appearant. The one problem is that the shoulders should form in about the same time. Left shoulder on the NDX, on my charts, took from Jun 1997 to Oct 1998 (15 months). Right shoulder Apr-Sep 2001 (5 mos.) is, IMHO, too short and not valid. Now, call that H&S an inverted cup 'n handle, and this one could be valid. My favorite pattern would be a H&S with an horizontal neckline through Oct 1998 lows, which would trace the same way on the Dow, the SPX and the Naz. This would imply that we have set a temporary bottom and would rally through 2002 with early Jan-Feb 2003 as disappointing earnings season. IMHO, cos. are meeting lower guided earnings, throwing all but the kitchen sink as "one time charges" or "investment reductions" in the balance. In the hope to amortize their losses fast in a down market. Seems to be working as we effectively rally in this earnings season. Next fiscal year (Dec 2002), there will be no dead weight left, no one-time charges left to be excluded from the balances, no way to present pro-forma. And as economy will not make a 180 deg turn in a matter of a year, earnings will disappoint. Leaves more time to draw a neat right shoulder <ggg> (Neckline = 1357 on the COMPX, and classic way to measure would be negative -2400 <vbg>.

To: heehee1 who wrote (45936)	10/15/2001 11:16:56 AM
From: shoreco	Respond to of 100058

heehee1..Here's my take on what to expect (JMO), so take it with a grain of salt. In the near term 1-5 days, I'll watch Fridays highs and lows for clues. If Fridays lows don't hold then I'll be watching last weeks consolidation around 1050 on the S&P500. The 60min indicators are finally rolling and the daily's are right behind them (Very toppy, although they have not rolled yet). My guess is we won't rally like we did in April because of the uncertainty in the markets today (We did not have a war or a threat on our homeland in April). In the mid term 1-3 months, I'll be watching the 50ma's. They are now heading up on the 60min, after heading down for the last 6weeks, but they're still heading down on the dailies. Here's a chart. stockcharts.com[w,a]daclyymy[pb50!c50][vc60][iUb14!La12,26,9] Very similar to April but look how the exponential crossed above the simple. In the longer term 3-6 months..Keep an eye an the daily indicators (turning up or staying up) because the weeklies and monthly indicators are both set to rally (unlike April) although I feel the ripple effect from 09/11 will start to show up 3-6 months from now. Here's another chart I threw together over the weekend to keep an eye on the total picture (you can change the time frame's).. stockcharts.com\|B\|a12,26,9 EOM FWIW I'm still short S&P Novputs.....