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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: larry who wrote (55941)	10/15/2001 3:01:12 PM
From: Eric	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 77400

Larry Well when I first traded the stock back in the 92,93 time frame it had much higher PE's. I'm trying to find the website that could give me those figures. I've lost it somehow, does anyone have a link to a site that we could use? Anyway made a lot of $$$ for the IRS before going long in 93-94 time frame and as you said the PE rapidly expanded. Today the stock isn't my largest holding but still think it can grow significantly in the years ahead but make no mistake the heady days of fast growth are over. But still I see a easy triple in the stock to the mid 40's or 50's in the next few years once we get through this growth recession. Beyond that it gets tougher to forecast but IP buildout will resume and the "existing guts" of the Internet will be replaced by succeeding generations of faster equipment. The last mile is finally opening up and the few of us with DSL, satellite and cable modems are starting to put traffic demands on the existing IP infrastructure. High resolution Video is going to be on IP and as people migrate to this the pressures to improve the IP structure will increase greatly. To me this just guarantees further buildout. I know that Cisco doesn't want to let additional people go if they believe we will turn the corner soon. Just gotta wait for the CC in early November for indications. It's funny but I've listened to every CC for the last 5 or six years and every one has become more and more critical to get information regarding the company! The bottom line is I still hold about 20% of my original long position in Cisco and if I thought they would not come back I would have sold it two years ago when I sold a big percentage of the stock. I should have sold the remainder in spring of 2000 but I didn't, I just liked what the company was doing and what I still believe is the future for communications. If someone is new to the markets I would definitely take a small position in this company but at a hopefully lower price ($14 per share and lower). I doubt we will retest the lows at this juncture. But with the terrorist stuff going on we could still have some shocks to the markets. A tough call but we are swimming in cheap $$$ right now, recessions don't last long with that stuff floating around. I think most of us understand the difference between growth and value. That is an important distinction to make here. Eric

To: larry who wrote (55941)	10/15/2001 3:01:46 PM
From: Stock Farmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Hi Larry - I actually find it quite telling that folks bring up the words "trough earnings" and "growth rate" in a discussion about Cisco's PE. I mean, the former is applicable to a cyclical company, and the latter is meaningful only in the context of peakless companies. I sense a kind of clinging to the debris of shattered sell-side valuation myths going on. The hope that I was looking at earlier seems to have spent itself rather passionately. Hard to tell what happens now. I don't suspect CSCO or the market for that matter will remain lofted for much longer. Indeed I suspect a rather longish but gentle decline punctuated with brief intervals of lift from herein. John.