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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pirah Naman who wrote (47903)	10/15/2001 2:04:26 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I believe that to be getting outside the realm of valuation for the most part. Unless you have extreme volatility in both directions, using valuation should not result in many transactions at all; it is not distinct from buy and hold. We don't disagree here. We have had, however, suggestions earlier in this discussion from others that appropriate buy and sell signals might have helped in getting one out of companies which had become overvalued, thus preserving profits, and allowing one to get back in once the bubble was deflated. While skeptical, I think this kind of prospect is a very interesting one to test since it addresses the pain that a number of us have been experiencing. Worse yet, they are probably using published numbers. I don't understand what you are saying here. I am suggesting that a large scale study is probably using standard published P/Es and such and thus is analyzing numbers which I believe to be highly unreliable since they have not been subject to the kind of scrutiny and selection discussed on this thread. It certainly doesn't suggest to me that one should say "my guesses are so wrong, I'll just go with it and trust." It doesn't suggest that to me either. I tend to like being clear about sources of error and confidence so that I can make my decisions with that in mind. I think we can agree that validation that would meet your standards is not currently available. I don't know that. All I know is that I haven't seen much evidence presented as to whether they do or not.