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Pastimes : Ask da_cheif -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (6045)	10/15/2001 8:05:29 PM
From: Moominoid	Respond to of 8150

OK - yes according to the spectral analysis approach there is always an infinite number of deterministic cycles in operation. The key there is which contribute to variance in a statistical significant manner. The answer is very few. But stochastic cycles - or chaotic ones that look the same and have broader windows as you say, won't show up in a spectral analysis. For example the business cycle doesn't show up in the GDP spectrum. That's the kind of more important cycle which academic finance people tend to ignore though their macro colleagues spend all their time trying to research and explain. GDP is also a random walk just like stock prices. David